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The Times, Election prediction for Newbury |
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Apr 12 2010, 03:38 PM
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QUOTE (user23 @ Apr 12 2010, 04:30 PM) The Times Election prediction for Newbury seems to have the Tories winning by a landslide. http://generalelection2010.timesonline.co....ictions/Newbury87% at the time of posting this. It states they have an 87% chance of winning. Not that they are going to get 87% of the vote.
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Apr 12 2010, 04:13 PM
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QUOTE (user23 @ Apr 12 2010, 05:11 PM) errr, Yes it is. Would you like to discuss the fact that The Times predict there is a 87% chance that the Tories will secure enough votes to win Newbury? But orginally you said that the Tories were going to get 87% of the vote. This is quite different to them having an 87% (or 1/10 chance in a bookies) of winning Newbury.
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Apr 12 2010, 04:14 PM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Apr 12 2010, 05:13 PM) But orginally you said that the Tories were going to get 87% of the vote. This is quite different to them having an 87% (or 1/10 chance in a bookies) of winning Newbury. Would you like to discuss the fact that The Times predict there is a 87% chance that the Tories will secure enough votes to win Newbury? This seems quite high to me.
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Apr 12 2010, 04:19 PM
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QUOTE (user23 @ Apr 12 2010, 05:14 PM) Would you like to discuss the fact that The Times predict there is a 87% chance that the Tories will secure enough votes to win Newbury? This seems quite high to me. Not really. The Times has an opinion that is all - like you or I.
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Apr 12 2010, 04:21 PM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Apr 12 2010, 05:19 PM) Not really. The Times has an opinion that is all - like you or I. Unless your opinion is based on quantitative data you've collected from a reasonably large sample of voters your and my opinion isn't like the Times' at all.
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Apr 12 2010, 04:25 PM
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QUOTE (user23 @ Apr 12 2010, 05:21 PM) Unless your opinion is based on quantitative data you've collected from a reasonably large sample of voters your and my opinion isn't like the Times' at all. Really? Do people always tell the truth whan asked how they are going to vote by 'pollsters' How many right wingers are actually going to say they are voting for the BNP? They won't.
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Apr 12 2010, 04:31 PM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Apr 12 2010, 05:25 PM) Really? Do people always tell the truth whan asked how they are going to vote by 'pollsters'
How many right wingers are actually going to say they are voting for the BNP? They won't. Most I would imagine. Most BNP voters I've met are proud to do so as they feel they're making a point by doing so. Are you seriously saying that your opinion is as informed as an Opinion Poll in The Times or any other newspaper?
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Guest_Bill1_*
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Apr 12 2010, 04:46 PM
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Well this well intentioned thread is going well..............
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Apr 13 2010, 09:00 AM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Apr 12 2010, 05:13 PM) But orginally you said that the Tories were going to get 87% of the vote. This is quite different to them having an 87% (or 1/10 chance in a bookies) of winning Newbury. Just as a point of information, where does he actually say that?
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Apr 13 2010, 11:26 AM
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QUOTE (JeffG @ Apr 13 2010, 10:00 AM) Just as a point of information, where does he actually say that? Well user23 did state... QUOTE (user23 @ Apr 12 2010, 04:30 PM) The Times Election prediction for Newbury seems to have the Tories winning by a landslide. http://generalelection2010.timesonline.co....ictions/Newbury87% at the time of posting this. A land slide would be by a vast majority. If 87% of people who can vote, voted Tory, that would be a landslide. An 87% chance of a victory, however, doesn't necessarily mean by a land slide.
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