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> The Times, Election prediction for Newbury
user23
post Apr 12 2010, 03:30 PM
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The Times Election prediction for Newbury seems to have the Tories winning by a landslide.

http://generalelection2010.timesonline.co....ictions/Newbury

87% at the time of posting this.
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TallDarkAndHands...
post Apr 12 2010, 03:38 PM
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QUOTE (user23 @ Apr 12 2010, 04:30 PM) *
The Times Election prediction for Newbury seems to have the Tories winning by a landslide.

http://generalelection2010.timesonline.co....ictions/Newbury

87% at the time of posting this.


It states they have an 87% chance of winning. Not that they are going to get 87% of the vote.

rolleyes.gif
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user23
post Apr 12 2010, 03:43 PM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Apr 12 2010, 04:38 PM) *
It states they have an 87% chance of winning. Not that they are going to get 87% of the vote.

rolleyes.gif
Yes you're right actually. It's kind of the same thing but not exactly.
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TallDarkAndHands...
post Apr 12 2010, 03:54 PM
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QUOTE (user23 @ Apr 12 2010, 04:43 PM) *
Yes you're right actually. It's kind of the same thing but not exactly.



errr.. No its not. laugh.gif
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user23
post Apr 12 2010, 04:11 PM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Apr 12 2010, 04:54 PM) *
errr.. No its not. laugh.gif
errr, Yes it is. laugh.gif

Would you like to discuss the fact that The Times predict there is a 87% chance that the Tories will secure enough votes to win Newbury? This seems quite high to me.
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TallDarkAndHands...
post Apr 12 2010, 04:13 PM
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QUOTE (user23 @ Apr 12 2010, 05:11 PM) *
errr, Yes it is. laugh.gif

Would you like to discuss the fact that The Times predict there is a 87% chance that the Tories will secure enough votes to win Newbury?


But orginally you said that the Tories were going to get 87% of the vote. This is quite different to them having an 87% (or 1/10 chance in a bookies) of winning Newbury.
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user23
post Apr 12 2010, 04:14 PM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Apr 12 2010, 05:13 PM) *
But orginally you said that the Tories were going to get 87% of the vote. This is quite different to them having an 87% (or 1/10 chance in a bookies) of winning Newbury.
Would you like to discuss the fact that The Times predict there is a 87% chance that the Tories will secure enough votes to win Newbury? This seems quite high to me.
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TallDarkAndHands...
post Apr 12 2010, 04:19 PM
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QUOTE (user23 @ Apr 12 2010, 05:14 PM) *
Would you like to discuss the fact that The Times predict there is a 87% chance that the Tories will secure enough votes to win Newbury? This seems quite high to me.


Not really. The Times has an opinion that is all - like you or I.
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user23
post Apr 12 2010, 04:21 PM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Apr 12 2010, 05:19 PM) *
Not really. The Times has an opinion that is all - like you or I.
Unless your opinion is based on quantitative data you've collected from a reasonably large sample of voters your and my opinion isn't like the Times' at all.
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TallDarkAndHands...
post Apr 12 2010, 04:25 PM
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QUOTE (user23 @ Apr 12 2010, 05:21 PM) *
Unless your opinion is based on quantitative data you've collected from a reasonably large sample of voters your and my opinion isn't like the Times' at all.


Really? Do people always tell the truth whan asked how they are going to vote by 'pollsters'

How many right wingers are actually going to say they are voting for the BNP? They won't.
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Iommi
post Apr 12 2010, 04:28 PM
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I think it is highly likely the Tories will win in Newbury. The more unpopular the Labour party become nationally, the weaker the Lib Dem vote is in the constituency of Newbury. I think that is so, because some people seem to 'use' the Lib Dems for tactical voting. When the Labour party were at their most popular (in the 90s, and on), the Lib Dem vote was at its strongest locally.
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user23
post Apr 12 2010, 04:31 PM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Apr 12 2010, 05:25 PM) *
Really? Do people always tell the truth whan asked how they are going to vote by 'pollsters'

How many right wingers are actually going to say they are voting for the BNP? They won't.
Most I would imagine. Most BNP voters I've met are proud to do so as they feel they're making a point by doing so.

Are you seriously saying that your opinion is as informed as an Opinion Poll in The Times or any other newspaper?
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Guest_Bill1_*
post Apr 12 2010, 04:46 PM
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Well this well intentioned thread is going well.............. angry.gif
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user23
post Apr 12 2010, 04:54 PM
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QUOTE (Bill1 @ Apr 12 2010, 05:46 PM) *
Well this well intentioned thread is going well.............. angry.gif
It's the same old stuff from a usual suspect I'm afraid Bill.
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Iommi
post Apr 12 2010, 04:54 PM
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I would find it interesting to know how many true Labour and Lib Dem supporters there would be, in Newbury, if everyone could only vote for their preferred Prime Minister, or party.
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blackdog
post Apr 12 2010, 05:35 PM
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87% is actually quite low for this area - the only neighbouring constituency where the Times odds on the Tories are less than 90% is Reading West - currently a Labour seat.

I suspect that the odds on the Tories were pretty high back when Rendell first won the seat...


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Roost
post Apr 12 2010, 06:09 PM
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To be honest, you're arguing semantics.
Don't matter who the slavemaster is, the job's still the same....


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Welcome to the jungle....
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TallDarkAndHands...
post Apr 13 2010, 07:54 AM
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QUOTE (user23 @ Apr 12 2010, 05:54 PM) *
It's the same old stuff from a usual suspect I'm afraid Bill.


What's that exactly supposed to mean? I'd say you have more 'form' than I on hi-jacking threads. Now wheres my ignore button..... laugh.gif
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JeffG
post Apr 13 2010, 09:00 AM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Apr 12 2010, 05:13 PM) *
But orginally you said that the Tories were going to get 87% of the vote. This is quite different to them having an 87% (or 1/10 chance in a bookies) of winning Newbury.

Just as a point of information, where does he actually say that?
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Iommi
post Apr 13 2010, 11:26 AM
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QUOTE (JeffG @ Apr 13 2010, 10:00 AM) *
Just as a point of information, where does he actually say that?


Well user23 did state...

QUOTE (user23 @ Apr 12 2010, 04:30 PM) *
The Times Election prediction for Newbury seems to have the Tories winning by a landslide.

http://generalelection2010.timesonline.co....ictions/Newbury

87% at the time of posting this.


A land slide would be by a vast majority. If 87% of people who can vote, voted Tory, that would be a landslide. An 87% chance of a victory, however, doesn't necessarily mean by a land slide.
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