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Victoria Ward predictions |
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Apr 14 2013, 07:17 AM
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QUOTE (Strafin @ Apr 14 2013, 03:57 AM) I think the liberals will win. Richard, I wish you were standing, I can't understand why you aren't. If you were I think things would be very different. Gary and Kate live in central Newbury and are excellent candidates. With me working away four days a week, I didn't want to be a distraction as the Lib Dems had already began a negative campaign against me thinking I would be standing. Lib Dem support on the doors is very weak.
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Apr 14 2013, 10:54 AM
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QUOTE (Richard Garvie @ Apr 14 2013, 08:17 AM) Lib Dem support on the doors is very weak. Says who?
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Apr 14 2013, 10:55 AM
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QUOTE (Richard Garvie @ Apr 13 2013, 11:37 PM) The data from voter ID sessions suggest a close run Conservative / Labour contest with the Lib Dems crumbling into third, possibly fourth place. What are your predictions? 'Voter ID sessions? What are they, and how valid is the data?
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Apr 14 2013, 12:50 PM
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QUOTE (Richard Garvie @ Apr 14 2013, 01:38 PM) Knocking doors and asking people who they plan to vote for essentially. Evidence of the reliability? Sample size as a proportion of electorate?
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Apr 14 2013, 01:46 PM
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QUOTE (NWNREADER @ Apr 14 2013, 01:50 PM) Evidence of the reliability? Sample size as a proportion of electorate? One in three doors knocked is about average, maybe one in four at times. Maybe the Lib Dem supporters are just not coming to the doors. Our data so far shows it being close between Labour and Conservative and neck and neck between Lib Dems and Apols, but in truth we are averaging only a few Lib Dem supporters each day. The issues are around lack of consultation at racecourse development, market street, victoria park and rubbish collections. Well, certainly the most common issues we hear.
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Apr 14 2013, 02:12 PM
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QUOTE (Richard Garvie @ Apr 14 2013, 02:46 PM) The issues are around lack of consultation at racecourse development, market street, victoria park and rubbish collections. Well, certainly the most common issues we hear. Interesting to know what the issues are - however, only one is an NTC issue and this is an NTC election. Have the Tories announced their candidates yet?
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Apr 14 2013, 02:23 PM
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QUOTE (blackdog @ Apr 14 2013, 03:12 PM) Interesting to know what the issues are - however, only one is an NTC issue and this is an NTC election. Aaah, but Super-G and his comrades will fight all battles regardless of the ground!
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Apr 14 2013, 02:47 PM
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QUOTE (Richard Garvie @ Apr 14 2013, 01:38 PM) Knocking doors and asking people who they plan to vote for essentially. Why didn't you say door knocking rather than 'Voter ID sessions'?
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Apr 14 2013, 02:57 PM
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I'd like to see the data - roads, number of residencies, number called at, number no reply, number of people spoken to at each address v number of electors, number declining to answer (in any form) number saying will not vote, number saying they will vote for L, LD, C, others.......
That way everyone gets to see the quality of the statements RG makes.
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Apr 14 2013, 03:09 PM
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QUOTE (blackdog @ Apr 14 2013, 03:12 PM) Have the Tories announced their candidates yet? The line-up for the forthcoming Newbury Town Council, Victoria by-election is as follows: BOWLER, Malcolm: Conservative Party BUTLER, Kate: Labour Party FAIRBROTHER, Stuart: Conservative Party FARROW, Charlie: Apolitical Party PAYTON, Alex: Liberal Democrat Party PUFFETT, Gary John: Labour Party UDUWERAGE-PERERA, Ruwan: Liberal Democrat Party YATES, Dave: Apolitical Party Personally I wish everyone the best and I am looking forward to a challenging, but pleasant and enjoyable campaign, for ultimately over and above party politics, we all wish for what is best for Newbury. Ruwan Uduwerage-Perera
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Apr 14 2013, 03:27 PM
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QUOTE (NWNREADER @ Apr 14 2013, 03:57 PM) I'd like to see the data - roads, number of residencies, number called at, number no reply, number of people spoken to at each address v number of electors, number declining to answer (in any form) number saying will not vote, number saying they will vote for L, LD, C, others.......
That way everyone gets to see the quality of the statements RG makes. Nice one but don't make it so blatant!
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Know your place!
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Apr 14 2013, 03:50 PM
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QUOTE (On the edge @ Apr 14 2013, 04:27 PM) Nice one but don't make it so blatant! I don't do subtle - takes to long too get a straight answer!!
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Apr 14 2013, 04:26 PM
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QUOTE (NWNREADER @ Apr 14 2013, 04:51 PM) Unless someone has been cloned, I know one of the candidates. Could be interesting if elected! Interesting that's dangerous talk in Newbury you know!
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Vexatious Candidate?
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Apr 15 2013, 12:50 PM
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QUOTE (Richard Garvie @ Apr 13 2013, 11:37 PM) The data from voter ID sessions suggest a close run Conservative / Labour contest with the Lib Dems crumbling into third, possibly fourth place. What are your predictions? who cares.
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Apr 15 2013, 06:21 PM
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QUOTE (NWNREADER @ Apr 14 2013, 03:57 PM) I'd like to see the data - roads, number of residencies, number called at, number no reply, number of people spoken to at each address v number of electors, number declining to answer (in any form) number saying will not vote, number saying they will vote for L, LD, C, others.......
That way everyone gets to see the quality of the statements RG makes. I think it was Garden Close Lane. 11 interviewed 5 conservative, 1 Lib Dem 4 Labour and 1 probably won't vote as the Communist Party/Socialists don't have a candidate!
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