The Times, Election prediction for Newbury Options

[TallDarkAndHands...]

Well user did state...



A land slide would be by a vast majority. If 87% of people who can vote, voted Tory. That would be a landslide. An 87% of a victory, however, doesn't necessarily mean by a land slide.

Thanks for clearing that up Iommi. I'd almost given up.

[user23]

Just as a point of information, where does he actually say that?

I didn't but really couldn't be bothered to let him turn this thread into yet another one of his childish arguments.

[Iommi]

I didn't but really couldn't be bothered to let him turn this thread into yet another one of his childish arguments.

Although you did try to make amends...it got terribly close!

[Biker1]

Where did Ladbrokes get this 87% odds on Tory win from then.

No-one has asked me.

Anyone on here been asked?

[JeffG]

I thought bookies' odds were decided by the amount of money being laid. Perhaps some people in Newbury are betting on the outcome - wouldn't surprise me.

[James_Trinder]

I don't where Ladbrokes got their 87% odds on a Tory win from. I do know that Paddy Power are only offering 1/33 though, which is about a 97% chance. My statistical training has also taught me that confusing a 87% probability of winning a seat with a 87% majority is a basic error and one that should not be condoned.

[JeffG]

My statistical training has also taught me that confusing a 87% probability of winning a seat with a 87% majority is a basic error and one that should not be condoned.

i.e. an 87% probability of winning 51% of the vote.

[misc]

i.e. an 87% probability of winning 51% of the vote.

As I'm sure you're aware, they don't need 51% of the vote to win.

[JeffG]

As I'm sure you're aware, they don't need 51% of the vote to win.

Oops - silly mistake! That would only be the case if there were only two candidates and no spoilt papers. But I think you get my gist

[user23]

They're now predicting there's a 67% chance of the Tories winning.

http://generalelection2010.timesonline.co....ictions/Newbury

Not so much chance of a landslide now, according to The Times.

[Iommi]

They're now predicting there's a 67% chance of the Tories winning. http://generalelection2010.timesonline.co....ictions/Newbury Not so much chance of a landslide now, according to The Times.

I'm not sure a landslide was ever predicted, but with a surge in the popularity of the Lib Dems, this is a significant threat to a Conservative vote. Interesting that they think the Tories are twice as likely to win in Newbury.

What might happen, is that people dreading another Government with Gordon Brown as PM, who were possibly considering voting for a fringe party, might now vote for Benyon - fearing that a Lib Dem Newbury MP would assist Labour's chances of another period in Government.

[Guest_Newbury Expat_*]

I'm not sure a landslide was ever predicted, but with a surge in the popularity of the Lib Dems, this is a significant threat to a Conservative vote. Interesting that they think the Tories are twice as likely to win in Newbury.

What might happen, is that people dreading another Government with Gordon Brown as PM, who were possibly considering voting for a fringe party, might now vote for Benyon - fearing that a Lib Dem Newbury MP would assist Labour's chances of another period in Government.

Certainly possible and it's happened before.

Though interestingly, according to the latest opinion polls, the Lib Dems are not only catching the main two, they're neck and neck in the popular vote.

http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/

I'd be very surprised to see these polls bear out, but if they even get 25% (and say 80 seats), I think the Lib Dem's would feel that it was a successful campaign. If they could finish 2nd, that would be as big an election achievement as I can remember. Though this is in terms of popular vote and I'm not sure how many seats this would represent.

[JeffG]

Though this is in terms of popular vote and I'm not sure how many seats this would represent.

You can see how percentages for each party translate into seats here

[Guest_Newbury Expat_*]

You can see how percentages for each party translate into seats here

Great link, thanks Jeff.

Should have known Auntie would have had something useful, though would be better with a Jon Snow Swingometer graphic

Looks like the Lib Dems would need a huge advantage in popular vote to secure even the smallest seat margin.