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Posted by: user23 Apr 12 2010, 03:30 PM

The Times Election prediction for Newbury seems to have the Tories winning by a landslide.

http://generalelection2010.timesonline.co.uk/#/Predictions/Newbury

87% at the time of posting this.

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Apr 12 2010, 03:38 PM

It states they have an 87% chance of winning. Not that they are going to get 87% of the vote.

Posted by: user23 Apr 12 2010, 03:43 PM

Yes you're right actually. It's kind of the same thing but not exactly.

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Apr 12 2010, 03:54 PM

errr.. No its not.

Posted by: user23 Apr 12 2010, 04:11 PM

errr, Yes it is.

Would you like to discuss the fact that The Times predict there is a 87% chance that the Tories will secure enough votes to win Newbury? This seems quite high to me.

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Apr 12 2010, 04:13 PM

But orginally you said that the Tories were going to get 87% of the vote. This is quite different to them having an 87% (or 1/10 chance in a bookies) of winning Newbury.

Posted by: user23 Apr 12 2010, 04:14 PM

Would you like to discuss the fact that The Times predict there is a 87% chance that the Tories will secure enough votes to win Newbury? This seems quite high to me.

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Apr 12 2010, 04:19 PM

Not really. The Times has an opinion that is all - like you or I.

Posted by: user23 Apr 12 2010, 04:21 PM

Unless your opinion is based on quantitative data you've collected from a reasonably large sample of voters your and my opinion isn't like the Times' at all.

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Apr 12 2010, 04:25 PM

Really? Do people always tell the truth whan asked how they are going to vote by 'pollsters'

How many right wingers are actually going to say they are voting for the BNP? They won't.

Posted by: Iommi Apr 12 2010, 04:28 PM

I think it is highly likely the Tories will win in Newbury. The more unpopular the Labour party become nationally, the weaker the Lib Dem vote is in the constituency of Newbury. I think that is so, because some people seem to 'use' the Lib Dems for tactical voting. When the Labour party were at their most popular (in the 90s, and on), the Lib Dem vote was at its strongest locally.

Posted by: user23 Apr 12 2010, 04:31 PM

Most I would imagine. Most BNP voters I've met are proud to do so as they feel they're making a point by doing so.

Are you seriously saying that your opinion is as informed as an Opinion Poll in The Times or any other newspaper?

Posted by: Bill1 Apr 12 2010, 04:46 PM

Well this well intentioned thread is going well..............

Posted by: user23 Apr 12 2010, 04:54 PM

It's the same old stuff from a usual suspect I'm afraid Bill.

Posted by: Iommi Apr 12 2010, 04:54 PM

I would find it interesting to know how many true Labour and Lib Dem supporters there would be, in Newbury, if everyone could only vote for their preferred Prime Minister, or party.

Posted by: blackdog Apr 12 2010, 05:35 PM

87% is actually quite low for this area - the only neighbouring constituency where the Times odds on the Tories are less than 90% is Reading West - currently a Labour seat.

I suspect that the odds on the Tories were pretty high back when Rendell first won the seat...

Posted by: Roost Apr 12 2010, 06:09 PM

To be honest, you're arguing semantics.
Don't matter who the slavemaster is, the job's still the same....

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Apr 13 2010, 07:54 AM

What's that exactly supposed to mean? I'd say you have more 'form' than I on hi-jacking threads. Now wheres my ignore button.....

Posted by: JeffG Apr 13 2010, 09:00 AM

Just as a point of information, where does he actually say that?

Posted by: Iommi Apr 13 2010, 11:26 AM

Well user23 did state...



A land slide would be by a vast majority. If 87% of people who can vote, voted Tory, that would be a landslide. An 87% chance of a victory, however, doesn't necessarily mean by a land slide.

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Apr 13 2010, 11:55 AM

Thanks for clearing that up Iommi. I'd almost given up.

Posted by: user23 Apr 13 2010, 04:54 PM

I didn't but really couldn't be bothered to let him turn this thread into yet another one of his childish arguments.

Posted by: Iommi Apr 13 2010, 05:05 PM

Although you did try to make amends...it got terribly close!

Posted by: Biker1 Apr 13 2010, 09:01 PM

Where did Ladbrokes get this 87% odds on Tory win from then.

No-one has asked me.

Anyone on here been asked?

Posted by: JeffG Apr 14 2010, 02:10 PM

I thought bookies' odds were decided by the amount of money being laid. Perhaps some people in Newbury are betting on the outcome - wouldn't surprise me.

Posted by: James_Trinder Apr 14 2010, 08:35 PM

I don't where Ladbrokes got their 87% odds on a Tory win from. I do know that Paddy Power are only offering 1/33 though, which is about a 97% chance. My statistical training has also taught me that confusing a 87% probability of winning a seat with a 87% majority is a basic error and one that should not be condoned.

Posted by: JeffG Apr 15 2010, 10:30 AM

i.e. an 87% probability of winning 51% of the vote.

Posted by: misc Apr 15 2010, 12:46 PM

As I'm sure you're aware, they don't need 51% of the vote to win.

Posted by: JeffG Apr 15 2010, 02:40 PM

Oops - silly mistake! That would only be the case if there were only two candidates and no spoilt papers. But I think you get my gist

Posted by: user23 Apr 21 2010, 08:32 PM

They're now predicting there's a 67% chance of the Tories winning.

http://generalelection2010.timesonline.co.uk/#/Predictions/Newbury

Not so much chance of a landslide now, according to The Times.

Posted by: Iommi Apr 21 2010, 09:30 PM

I'm not sure a landslide was ever predicted, but with a surge in the popularity of the Lib Dems, this is a significant threat to a Conservative vote. Interesting that they think the Tories are twice as likely to win in Newbury.

What might happen, is that people dreading another Government with Gordon Brown as PM, who were possibly considering voting for a fringe party, might now vote for Benyon - fearing that a Lib Dem Newbury MP would assist Labour's chances of another period in Government.

Posted by: Newbury Expat Apr 21 2010, 09:52 PM

Certainly possible and it's happened before.

Though interestingly, according to the latest opinion polls, the Lib Dems are not only catching the main two, they're neck and neck in the popular vote.

http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/

I'd be very surprised to see these polls bear out, but if they even get 25% (and say 80 seats), I think the Lib Dem's would feel that it was a successful campaign. If they could finish 2nd, that would be as big an election achievement as I can remember. Though this is in terms of popular vote and I'm not sure how many seats this would represent.

Posted by: JeffG Apr 22 2010, 02:05 PM

You can see how percentages for each party translate into seats http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8609989.stm

Posted by: Newbury Expat Apr 22 2010, 04:02 PM

Great link, thanks Jeff.

Should have known Auntie would have had something useful, though would be better with a Jon Snow Swingometer graphic

Looks like the Lib Dems would need a huge advantage in popular vote to secure even the smallest seat margin.