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> Newbury / Thatcham House Prices
Oneilly
post Sep 18 2013, 12:21 PM
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House prices seem to exploded over the last few months, due to limited availbility and renters moving back into ownership!

I can't believe how much they have gone up, does anybody expect a drop back over the winter months?
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Claude
post Sep 18 2013, 12:58 PM
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QUOTE (Oneilly @ Sep 18 2013, 01:21 PM) *
House prices seem to exploded over the last few months, due to limited availbility and renters moving back into ownership!

I can't believe how much they have gone up, does anybody expect a drop back over the winter months?

Being that I'm not actively looking for a new home I haven't noticed any fluctuations in either asking prices or sold prices. I'm not sure the reasons you cited will have affected house prices in the last couple of months only...
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Oneilly
post Sep 18 2013, 01:07 PM
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QUOTE (Claude @ Sep 18 2013, 01:58 PM) *
Being that I'm not actively looking for a new home I haven't noticed any fluctuations in either asking prices or sold prices. I'm not sure the reasons you cited will have affected house prices in the last couple of months only...



A house in college mews Newbury went up 45k in 3 months and sold, local estate agents tell me investors are buying up property.
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Claude
post Sep 18 2013, 03:17 PM
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QUOTE (Oneilly @ Sep 18 2013, 02:07 PM) *
A house in college mews Newbury went up 45k in 3 months and sold, local estate agents tell me investors are buying up property.

I see what you'e saying but a single house isn't the whole market, there are a dozen reasons why it could have been sold cheap 3 months ago then subsequently at market value. Furthermore, I wouldn't trust a single word any estate agent said.

As I said, I'm not looking to buy or sell, but if I was I would only live within the Newbury area, so house prices going up or down locally isn't really a factor, c'est la vie.

Does anyone know how representative house price changes in this region are compared to national averages?
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DJE
post Sep 19 2013, 04:07 AM
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QUOTE (Oneilly @ Sep 18 2013, 02:07 PM) *
A house in college mews Newbury went up 45k in 3 months and sold, local estate agents tell me investors are buying up property.

rolleyes.gif
Ah, yes, right, an Estate Agent is an impartial observer, isn't he?

So, lets get this right. A house goes on the market. it doesn't sell, so the seller raises the price by £45k. And then it sells?

This desperate ramping of house prices is worse than the Daily Mail. Is the OP a desperate estate agent? dry.gif

The sooner house prices drop further to sensible levels, the better. High property prices are a drag on the economy, just as high fuel and food prices are.

Remember, if a house doubles in price, it is still the price of a house. It just means that the value of money has halved. Along with you life savings and pension. It's called inflation.

And when house prices start to overheat, interest rates (should) go up. So if you have a mortgage, don't go cracking the champagne open too soon. QE cant go on forever, and the longer the housing market is propped up, the messier it will be when it ends, as it has to.

The way that people think they are somehow 'entitled' to huge profits just for the virtue of living in their own house makes me despair. It is delusional, venal, and defies basic economics. Bust follows boom. It just plays into the hands of banks and big landowners - those in real power, in other words.

If housing goes up in price it does not actually create anything of real value or wealth - they remain the same houses.
No value is added. Nothing of value is created. So any economic 'recovery' based on the GDP growing by house price inflation should set alarm bells ringing to any competent economist.

The only reliable database of house prices is the Land Registry. That records ACTUAL house prices for completed sales, rather than the fantasy indexes that record asking prices, no matter how delusional. House prices are not going up outside London, and need to fall further.

it was a housing bubble in the US & UK , with it's attendant frauds, that was one of the main causes of the economic crisis back in 2008. Anyone who wants that again needs sectioning. Or imprisoning. Or both.
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Oneilly
post Sep 19 2013, 09:06 AM
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QUOTE (DJE @ Sep 19 2013, 05:07 AM) *
rolleyes.gif
Ah, yes, right, an Estate Agent is an impartial observer, isn't he?

So, lets get this right. A house goes on the market. it doesn't sell, so the seller raises the price by £45k. And then it sells?

This desperate ramping of house prices is worse than the Daily Mail. Is the OP a desperate estate agent? dry.gif

The sooner house prices drop further to sensible levels, the better. High property prices are a drag on the economy, just as high fuel and food prices are.

Remember, if a house doubles in price, it is still the price of a house. It just means that the value of money has halved. Along with you life savings and pension. It's called inflation.

And when house prices start to overheat, interest rates (should) go up. So if you have a mortgage, don't go cracking the champagne open too soon. QE cant go on forever, and the longer the housing market is propped up, the messier it will be when it ends, as it has to.

The way that people think they are somehow 'entitled' to huge profits just for the virtue of living in their own house makes me despair. It is delusional, venal, and defies basic economics. Bust follows boom. It just plays into the hands of banks and big landowners - those in real power, in other words.

If housing goes up in price it does not actually create anything of real value or wealth - they remain the same houses.
No value is added. Nothing of value is created. So any economic 'recovery' based on the GDP growing by house price inflation should set alarm bells ringing to any competent economist.

The only reliable database of house prices is the Land Registry. That records ACTUAL house prices for completed sales, rather than the fantasy indexes that record asking prices, no matter how delusional. House prices are not going up outside London, and need to fall further.

it was a housing bubble in the US & UK , with it's attendant frauds, that was one of the main causes of the economic crisis back in 2008. Anyone who wants that again needs sectioning. Or imprisoning. Or both.




Guys, I was asked for an example and that's what I gave you, I have seen prices shoot up, I truly hope they drop back down and this was just summer madness.
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DJE
post Sep 19 2013, 11:22 AM
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QUOTE (Oneilly @ Sep 19 2013, 10:06 AM) *
Guys, I was asked for an example and that's what I gave you, I have seen prices shoot up, I truly hope they drop back down and this was just summer madness.

Asking prices, maybe. And yes, it is madness, or rather, greed.

The economy has not improved (except for Government profligacy bolstering the GDP, and QE propping up the stock & bond markets), wages in the private sector have fallen, the Euro is shaky, QE may end soon and interest rates can only go up from here, all of which will have the effect of reducing house prices.

The stupid Help-to-Buy scheme is designed to prop up property prices, not help first time buyers. Intended consequences from MPs with taxpayer-funded second homes, perhaps.

The exception is London, where foreign investors have piled in to get their money out of Cyprus, etc.

Watch the Land Registry figures based on actual sales prices. (And the volumes data is interesting too. The market is dead, despite what estate agents may say).

BTW if you what the actual property is that supposedly 'went up' in 'price' is, you should be able to check the actual sale price on the Internet within a couple of months. Did it really sell at the higher price?

Edit: The latest figures from the LR are for July 2013. This is because not all completed transactions will have been filed and collated at the LR yet. Less that 200 properties sold in West Berkshire in July 2013, and no individual estate agent will have stats for anything like as many property sales, so their anecdotal evidence counts for little.

The Land Registry house price index for West Berkshire stood at 283.51 in July 2012, and 285.70 in July 2013, after dipping to 277.90 in April 2013, and well short of the peak of 287.96 in January 2013. So any rise is very short term, and based on stats from very few sales. Prices since January this year have fallen. They tend to fall more in winter, too.

So Year-on-Year July 2012-2013 house prices in W Berkshire rose by a whopping 0.77%. Thats based on the ACTUAL sales figures. When inflation is taken into account, they have fallen in real terms.

So even with Help-to-Buy, Quantitative Easing, high(ish) RPI inflation and record-low interest rates, house prices are just holding level. Any hiccup will deflate them again.

They need to fall further.

Never confuse asking prices with actual sales prices. That nonsense is always used by EAs to ramp up bidding.

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/public/hous...earch-the-index
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On the edge
post Sep 19 2013, 11:56 AM
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Advertised house prices often aren't what they seem. Estate Agents have no magic way of pricing property - so you will see market tests. Similarly be careful of the sites that track sale prices, again, these aren't always what they seem. Taking their data from the Land Registry means that family transfer prices and such like also get included.

I've recently helped a couple of family members buy property here and also in South London. Prices are exactly as one would expect. Yes, the market is beginning to move, but almost imperceptibly. If you are after apartments, Newbury has some very new developments. These aren't driving up prices, more driving up quality - which is no bad thing.

According to the press, London has bucked the trend, but again, that very much depends where you look. Some places, Bloomsbury etc. are now silly, even for old studio flats. That leaves some of the unpopular areas; which are either going to get gentrified or buyers will start to look further out. Its the domino effect of this latter point which could eventually drive Newbury. Once the electric trains are here, Paddington Basin will be complete.


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DJE
post Sep 19 2013, 12:57 PM
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QUOTE (On the edge @ Sep 19 2013, 12:56 PM) *
Advertised house prices often aren't what they seem. Estate Agents have no magic way of pricing property - so you will see market tests. Similarly be careful of the sites that track sale prices, again, these aren't always what they seem. Taking their data from the Land Registry means that family transfer prices and such like also get included.

I've recently helped a couple of family members buy property here and also in South London. Prices are exactly as one would expect. Yes, the market is beginning to move, but almost imperceptibly. If you are after apartments, Newbury has some very new developments. These aren't driving up prices, more driving up quality - which is no bad thing.

According to the press, London has bucked the trend, but again, that very much depends where you look. Some places, Bloomsbury etc. are now silly, even for old studio flats. That leaves some of the unpopular areas; which are either going to get gentrified or buyers will start to look further out. Its the domino effect of this latter point which could eventually drive Newbury. Once the electric trains are here, Paddington Basin will be complete.

I stand to be corrected, but I think the Land Registry does not include family transfer prices, just the prices of properties sold on the open market. So deals where property values are, say, kept 'unusually' low for inheritance tax reasons are not included.

Unlike the Nationwide and Halifax indexes, the Land Registry prices are more complete, in that they include non-mortgagegd properties.

The Land Registry are as near-definitive as one can get, and remember, when comparing year-on-year, any seasonal adjustments and weighting cancel out.

Annual house price inflation in West Berkshire using the most recent year's figures is much less than 1%.

Expect Estate Agents to sieze upon monthly glitches (due to unusual transactions skewing data from low volumes) to argue otherwise, but only when the glitch works in their favour.
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Oneilly
post Sep 19 2013, 01:24 PM
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QUOTE (DJE @ Sep 19 2013, 12:22 PM) *
Asking prices, maybe. And yes, it is madness, or rather, greed.

The economy has not improved (except for Government profligacy bolstering the GDP, and QE propping up the stock & bond markets), wages in the private sector have fallen, the Euro is shaky, QE may end soon and interest rates can only go up from here, all of which will have the effect of reducing house prices.

The stupid Help-to-Buy scheme is designed to prop up property prices, not help first time buyers. Intended consequences from MPs with taxpayer-funded second homes, perhaps.

The exception is London, where foreign investors have piled in to get their money out of Cyprus, etc.

Watch the Land Registry figures based on actual sales prices. (And the volumes data is interesting too. The market is dead, despite what estate agents may say).

BTW if you what the actual property is that supposedly 'went up' in 'price' is, you should be able to check the actual sale price on the Internet within a couple of months. Did it really sell at the higher price?

Edit: The latest figures from the LR are for July 2013. This is because not all completed transactions will have been filed and collated at the LR yet. Less that 200 properties sold in West Berkshire in July 2013, and no individual estate agent will have stats for anything like as many property sales, so their anecdotal evidence counts for little.

The Land Registry house price index for West Berkshire stood at 283.51 in July 2012, and 285.70 in July 2013, after dipping to 277.90 in April 2013, and well short of the peak of 287.96 in January 2013. So any rise is very short term, and based on stats from very few sales. Prices since January this year have fallen. They tend to fall more in winter, too.

So Year-on-Year July 2012-2013 house prices in W Berkshire rose by a whopping 0.77%. Thats based on the ACTUAL sales figures. When inflation is taken into account, they have fallen in real terms.

So even with Help-to-Buy, Quantitative Easing, high(ish) RPI inflation and record-low interest rates, house prices are just holding level. Any hiccup will deflate them again.

They need to fall further.

Never confuse asking prices with actual sales prices. That nonsense is always used by EAs to ramp up bidding.

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/public/hous...earch-the-index




Very interesting, thanks
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Oneilly
post Sep 19 2013, 01:26 PM
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QUOTE (On the edge @ Sep 19 2013, 12:56 PM) *
Advertised house prices often aren't what they seem. Estate Agents have no magic way of pricing property - so you will see market tests. Similarly be careful of the sites that track sale prices, again, these aren't always what they seem. Taking their data from the Land Registry means that family transfer prices and such like also get included.

I've recently helped a couple of family members buy property here and also in South London. Prices are exactly as one would expect. Yes, the market is beginning to move, but almost imperceptibly. If you are after apartments, Newbury has some very new developments. These aren't driving up prices, more driving up quality - which is no bad thing.

According to the press, London has bucked the trend, but again, that very much depends where you look. Some places, Bloomsbury etc. are now silly, even for old studio flats. That leaves some of the unpopular areas; which are either going to get gentrified or buyers will start to look further out. Its the domino effect of this latter point which could eventually drive Newbury. Once the electric trains are here, Paddington Basin will be complete.



Thank you!
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Oneilly
post Sep 19 2013, 01:36 PM
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Just re-read both your posts and would like again to thank you for taking the time to reply.

As I suspected it's price/stat manipulation by the EA, I didn't fall for their tricks and offered what I thought the house was worth.

My offer has been apprantly rejected as an offer at full asking has been made from a cash buyer.

I was told this during the viewing and told them there was no point in me making an offer as I could/would not get into a bidding war, but they insisted in a bid, which I did at what I felt was fair!

Dispite apprantly selling the house, 3 days later it still appears to be on the market, I wonder if I will receive a call!
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newres
post Sep 19 2013, 03:08 PM
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My experience is quite current. We are in the St Barts area nd property is in short supply. We sold ours at full aking price to the first viewer. Watching tRightmove, things sell very quickly in this area. Where was the house you offered on OP?
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Oneilly
post Sep 19 2013, 03:14 PM
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QUOTE (newres @ Sep 19 2013, 04:08 PM) *
My experience is quite current. We are in the St Barts area nd property is in short supply. We sold ours at full aking price to the first viewer. Watching tRightmove, things sell very quickly in this area. Where was the house you offered on OP?



College Mews, we sold our own propery in 2 weeks and dropped 5k
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Claude
post Sep 19 2013, 03:17 PM
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QUOTE (newres @ Sep 19 2013, 04:08 PM) *
My experience is quite current. We are in the St Barts area nd property is in short supply. We sold ours at full aking price to the first viewer. Watching tRightmove, things sell very quickly in this area.

Moi aussi, but from the other side of the fence. A couple of years ago we bought in the St Bart's area, we were the first to view and we offered full asking price. And we're more than happy with how it's worked out given what we feel the house is 'worth' - to us as a home rather than financially speaking.
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On the edge
post Sep 19 2013, 04:42 PM
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QUOTE (newres @ Sep 19 2013, 04:08 PM) *
My experience is quite current. We are in the St Barts area nd property is in short supply. We sold ours at full aking price to the first viewer. Watching tRightmove, things sell very quickly in this area. Where was the house you offered on OP?


Yes, things are moving quite quickly; particularly where the property is not out of the ordinary for the area and the vendors market with a realistic price. On the other hand, there are a good few properties that have been on the market for a considerable time, often coming off and then going back, where the vendors are for whatever reason unwilling to drop by very much. For those with a few thousand extra, there are some exceptional properties at the high end if you look hard enough!


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Ron
post Sep 19 2013, 04:54 PM
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QUOTE (newres @ Sep 19 2013, 04:08 PM) *
My experience is quite current. We are in the St Barts area nd property is in short supply. We sold ours at full aking price to the first viewer. Watching tRightmove, things sell very quickly in this area. Where was the house you offered on OP?


The house opposite me was taken off the market last year at £650k. It has just gone back on the market at £725k. In St. Barts catchment area.
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newres
post Sep 19 2013, 05:44 PM
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QUOTE (Ron @ Sep 19 2013, 05:54 PM) *
The house opposite me was taken off the market last year at £650k. It has just gone back on the market at £725k. In St. Barts catchment area.

Newtown Rd? Nice house, but alas out of my price range.

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Strafin
post Sep 19 2013, 05:58 PM
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DJE's post are just about the most bang on I have ever read on here.
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motormad
post Sep 19 2013, 06:38 PM
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I'm trying to buy my own house as I'm sick of renting and not being able to have full control of my home life.
I have a £10k deposit saved up and yet doing a single mortgage application I am lucky to get over £120k. Fair enough that's just how life is.

Around here that is some pikey house no offense or a studio flat. I am considering moving away, perhaps to the midlands however I would rather move to Farnbruv or a similar area as that's where the majority of my friends are and it is a bit more local.

Now that is due to there being much more to choose from.

Newbury is not that nice to be fair, most places are simply "alright" and yet a decent house is around £200k.
Where as in the midlands you can get a much, much nicer house, for half the money. (£150k for a 4 bedroom detached with double garage anyone?)

What annoys me about renting situation is that people own one house and perhaps rent a room (or rooms) out.
I think this is fine personally I have no problem with that.

Then you have people who own multiple properties and rent them all out. Often privately, a phat, tax free income, while putting first time buyers like me on the backfoot. They bought a house for £30k which is now worth £180k but rather than sell it then want to keep their fat, tax free earnings rolling in.

Well, I won't be helping them when they're too old to control their bowels.


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