The Times, Election prediction for Newbury Options

[user23]

The Times Election prediction for Newbury seems to have the Tories winning by a landslide.

http://generalelection2010.timesonline.co....ictions/Newbury

87% at the time of posting this.

[user23]

They're now predicting there's a 67% chance of the Tories winning.

http://generalelection2010.timesonline.co....ictions/Newbury

Not so much chance of a landslide now, according to The Times.

[Iommi]

They're now predicting there's a 67% chance of the Tories winning. http://generalelection2010.timesonline.co....ictions/Newbury Not so much chance of a landslide now, according to The Times.

I'm not sure a landslide was ever predicted, but with a surge in the popularity of the Lib Dems, this is a significant threat to a Conservative vote. Interesting that they think the Tories are twice as likely to win in Newbury.

What might happen, is that people dreading another Government with Gordon Brown as PM, who were possibly considering voting for a fringe party, might now vote for Benyon - fearing that a Lib Dem Newbury MP would assist Labour's chances of another period in Government.

[Guest_Newbury Expat_*]

I'm not sure a landslide was ever predicted, but with a surge in the popularity of the Lib Dems, this is a significant threat to a Conservative vote. Interesting that they think the Tories are twice as likely to win in Newbury.

What might happen, is that people dreading another Government with Gordon Brown as PM, who were possibly considering voting for a fringe party, might now vote for Benyon - fearing that a Lib Dem Newbury MP would assist Labour's chances of another period in Government.

Certainly possible and it's happened before.

Though interestingly, according to the latest opinion polls, the Lib Dems are not only catching the main two, they're neck and neck in the popular vote.

http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/

I'd be very surprised to see these polls bear out, but if they even get 25% (and say 80 seats), I think the Lib Dem's would feel that it was a successful campaign. If they could finish 2nd, that would be as big an election achievement as I can remember. Though this is in terms of popular vote and I'm not sure how many seats this would represent.

[JeffG]

Though this is in terms of popular vote and I'm not sure how many seats this would represent.

You can see how percentages for each party translate into seats here