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> Labour ahead of the Lib Dems in local polling
On the edge
post Jun 2 2017, 09:50 AM
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QUOTE (Andy Capp @ Jun 2 2017, 09:07 AM) *
A weakened Lib Dem vote and a strengthened Labour vote just makes this a safer Tory seat.


It's rock solid Tory today and probably for the immediate future. Once the Town Centre is fully occupied and the electrification delivered the incomers to Newbury will change the dynamic. It's nice to dream about past glories, but Liberal Democracy is played out round here. No one will come near to defeating the Tories here for a few years yet, so it makes sense to vote for the coming people who are likely to be around for the long haul.


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Simon Kirby
post Jun 2 2017, 10:14 PM
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QUOTE (newres @ Jun 2 2017, 07:16 AM) *
Brexit would be in tatters. The government would have no mandate to conduct negotiations without parliament. There would have to be a second referendum. Any loss of majority would surely be a vote of no confidence.

It's not at all clear, and not going at all as May would presumably have wanted. Her campaign has been poor, and her performance dreadful, coming over as anxious and lost. My guess right now is that the Conservatives will win a majority, but a reduced majority, and I'd be surprised if May lasted the year as prime minister. None of that will be good for the UK.


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je suis Charlie
post Jun 2 2017, 10:17 PM
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QUOTE (On the edge @ Jun 2 2017, 10:50 AM) *
It's rock solid Tory today and probably for the immediate future. Once the Town Centre is fully occupied and the electrification delivered the incomers to Newbury will change the dynamic. It's nice to dream about past glories, but Liberal Democracy is played out round here. No one will come near to defeating the Tories here for a few years yet, so it makes sense to vote for the coming people who are likely to be around for the long haul.

If, they had someone like David Rendell, a good man. Then they might start to make inroads.
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Simon Kirby
post Jun 2 2017, 10:21 PM
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QUOTE (Andy Capp @ Jun 2 2017, 09:07 AM) *
A weakened Lib Dem vote and a strengthened Labour vote just makes this a safer Tory seat.

How do you figure that? I would suggest that Labour have previously been inconsequential but I see that changing with Labour winning seats at WBC and in the politicised parishes, and if Labour hold the Tories to account effectively at a local level a Labour MP is a possibility.


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TallDarkAndHands...
post Jun 3 2017, 05:18 AM
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QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jun 2 2017, 11:21 PM) *
How do you figure that? I would suggest that Labour have previously been inconsequential but I see that changing with Labour winning seats at WBC and in the politicised parishes, and if Labour hold the Tories to account effectively at a local level a Labour MP is a possibility.


No chance. Labour has as much chance round here as the Tories do in Hackney. You would have to change the demographic. A lot.
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Simon Kirby
post Jun 3 2017, 07:13 AM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 3 2017, 06:18 AM) *
No chance. Labour has as much chance round here as the Tories do in Hackney. You would have to change the demographic. A lot.

There is nothing unassailably Tory about West Berkshire. The Lib Dems got in, in local and national, and so can Labour with the right policies and approach. The Tories didn't become attractive, it was the Lib Dems that became arrogant and self-serving, but the idea of their politics of social justice was an attractive one that garnered a lot of support, and Labour is all about social justice so I have no doubt that it's possible.


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On the edge
post Jun 3 2017, 07:19 AM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 3 2017, 06:18 AM) *
No chance. Labour has as much chance round here as the Tories do in Hackney. You would have to change the demographic. A lot.


And that lot of change is just about to be delivered. The new developments in town and now villages are creating the dormatory suburb. Pollsters now recognise that the party divide isn't class based any longer, it's much more age related. Sure, the candidate, has a big personal following, just like David Rendel, as previously suggested, but that's pretty fickle as indeed he discovered. So if you really believe the Tories are rock solid, all those lovely new homes popping up may be telling a different story; certainly for the Town centre, they ain't aimed at local first time buyers.


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blackdog
post Jun 3 2017, 09:33 PM
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QUOTE (x2lls @ Jun 1 2017, 11:53 PM) *
I will be voting Tory. I refuse to accept a man who still has abbott on side. I also refuse to accept a lib dem leader who goes to church and believes in a fairy in the sky. Why is it, in this day and age, that if a prospective politician were to say he doesn't do god, he would not get elected. Hypocrisy at it's worst. As individual households, if we go overdrawn, we end up with a closed door to further financing. Why is it different at the national level? Something has to break. Thatcher, for all her ills, left us in the black. Labour spent it all.

You are aware that the Conservatives are led by a believer in that 'fairy in the sky'?
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TallDarkAndHands...
post Jun 3 2017, 10:04 PM
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QUOTE (blackdog @ Jun 3 2017, 10:33 PM) *
You are aware that the Conservatives are led by a believer in that 'fairy in the sky'?


Yep. The Lib Dems are a busted flush though. They will be lucky to retain the few seats they have. I think Corbyn will win. People seem to be transfixed by him. And May is doing everything she can to lose. Makes you wonder....
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On the edge
post Jun 3 2017, 11:06 PM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 3 2017, 11:04 PM) *
Yep. The Lib Dems are a busted flush though. They will be lucky to retain the few seats they have. I think Corbyn will win. People seem to be transfixed by him. And May is doing everything she can to lose. Makes you wonder....


Not really, if you take a long view. As Jim Callaghan in 1979 (another incumbent who started out as favorite) every so often there is a sea change in politics. I guess there is now. We finished with consensus politics in that year; and have had Thatcherite Cobden and Bright liberalisim ever since. It seems there is a sea change again.


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regor
post Jun 4 2017, 12:03 PM
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Whats all the fuss about? Round here the conservatives could put up a dead pig as a candidate and it would be elected with an overwhelming majority.
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Simon Kirby
post Jun 4 2017, 04:06 PM
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QUOTE (regor @ Jun 4 2017, 01:03 PM) *
Whats all the fuss about? Round here the conservatives could put up a dead pig as a candidate and it would be elected with an overwhelming majority.

Well, it's like I said in the OP:
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See http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin...py?seat=Newbury

Labour have now edged ahead of the Lib Dems in the polls. OK, so Labour are still a long way behind Benyon in what is now the forth most Conservative parliamentary constituency, but if you're thinking about voting tactically to keep the Tories out then Labour is now the party to vote for in Newbury.


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Simon Kirby
post Jun 4 2017, 04:08 PM
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QUOTE (blackdog @ Jun 3 2017, 10:33 PM) *
You are aware that the Conservatives are led by a believer in that 'fairy in the sky'?

And Paul Nuttall is a practicing Catholic according to the Catholic Hearald.

Personally I think it's arrogant to dismis someone because they have a religious belief and even as an atheist I'm not entirely comfortable with the position of Humanists who claim our inate humanity to be the only valid basis for morality as that assumes "our inate humanity" is some kind of objective standard when it's nothing more than a culture's mores and values, and religion is much the same, so a religious basis for morality is no less valid than a Humanist one, and there is just as much tyranny founded on a Humanist basis as on a religious one.


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Turin Machine
post Jun 4 2017, 04:17 PM
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Lots of Muslims in parliament, go have a pop at Islam, no? Wonder why.
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newres
post Jun 4 2017, 04:22 PM
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QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 4 2017, 05:17 PM) *
Lots of Muslims in parliament, go have a pop at Islam, no? Wonder why.

Silly.
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Turin Machine
post Jun 4 2017, 04:28 PM
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QUOTE (newres @ Jun 4 2017, 05:22 PM) *
Silly.

Why?
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On the edge
post Jun 5 2017, 11:34 AM
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QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 4 2017, 05:17 PM) *
Lots of Muslims in parliament, go have a pop at Islam, no? Wonder why.


Mrs May just has; or at least at the bogus illegitimate followers causing the trouble.

Sadly, all institutions have their share of nutters; the issue is really to identify and isolate them. Easier said than done of course.


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Turin Machine
post Jun 5 2017, 11:57 AM
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QUOTE (On the edge @ Jun 5 2017, 12:34 PM) *
Mrs May just has; or at least at the bogus illegitimate followers causing the trouble.

Sadly, all institutions have their share of nutters; the issue is really to identify and isolate them. Easier said than done of course.

Corduroy jackets and meusli are reliable indicators.
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newres
post Jun 5 2017, 04:23 PM
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QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 5 2017, 12:57 PM) *
Corduroy jackets and meusli are reliable indicators.

At least you've nailed your flag clearly to the mast (poor spelling aside).
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Turin Machine
post Jun 5 2017, 08:24 PM
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QUOTE (newres @ Jun 5 2017, 05:23 PM) *
At least you've nailed your flag clearly to the mast (poor spelling aside).

Oh Noes!! I've got the spelling police on my tail! Lawks! What ever shall I do?
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