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> Labour ahead of the Lib Dems in local polling
Simon Kirby
post Jun 1 2017, 09:46 PM
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See http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin...py?seat=Newbury

Labour have now edged ahead of the Lib Dems in the polls. OK, so Labour are still a long way behind Benyon in what is now the forth most Conservative parliamentary constituency, but if you're thinking about voting tactically to keep the Tories out then Labour is now the party to vote for in Newbury.


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TallDarkAndHands...
post Jun 1 2017, 09:55 PM
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QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jun 1 2017, 10:46 PM) *
See http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin...py?seat=Newbury

Labour have now edged ahead of the Lib Dems in the polls. OK, so Labour are still a long way behind Benyon in what is now the forth most Conservative parliamentary constituency, but if you're thinking about voting tactically to keep the Tories out then Labour is now the party to vote for in Newbury.


Outta touch chap. Benyon is 1/200 with the bookies. You can get 40s for the Lib Dems and 500s for Labour if you want to waste your money.😂
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Simon Kirby
post Jun 1 2017, 10:03 PM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 1 2017, 10:55 PM) *
Outta touch chap. Benyon is 1/200 with the bookies. You can get 40s for the Lib Dems and 500s for Labour if you want to waste your money.😂

Yes, sure, The Conservatives are almost inevitably going to win here this time round - like I say, it's the forth safest Tory seat in the country, but it is a significant development that Labour are now polling ahead of the Lib Dems.


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TallDarkAndHands...
post Jun 1 2017, 10:04 PM
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QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jun 1 2017, 11:03 PM) *
Yes, sure, The Conservatives are almost inevitably going to win here this time round - like I say, it's the forth safest Tory seat in the country, but it is a significant development that Labour are now polling ahead of the Lib Dems.


Perhaps people have accepted brexit and timmy has not.
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TallDarkAndHands...
post Jun 1 2017, 10:07 PM
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DP
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Simon Kirby
post Jun 1 2017, 10:13 PM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 1 2017, 11:04 PM) *
Perhaps people have accepted brexiit and timmy has not.

I don't know that Brexit is the most important issue for people generally.


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Turin Machine
post Jun 1 2017, 10:16 PM
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QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jun 1 2017, 11:13 PM) *
I don't know that Brexit is the most important issue for people generally.

Oh yes it is!!
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x2lls
post Jun 1 2017, 10:53 PM
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QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jun 1 2017, 10:46 PM) *
See http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin...py?seat=Newbury

Labour have now edged ahead of the Lib Dems in the polls. OK, so Labour are still a long way behind Benyon in what is now the forth most Conservative parliamentary constituency, but if you're thinking about voting tactically to keep the Tories out then Labour is now the party to vote for in Newbury.


I will be voting Tory. I refuse to accept a man who still has abbott on side. I also refuse to accept a lib dem leader who goes to church and believes in a fairy in the sky. Why is it, in this day and age, that if a prospective politician were to say he doesn't do god, he would not get elected. Hypocrisy at it's worst. As individual households, if we go overdrawn, we end up with a closed door to further financing. Why is it different at the national level? Something has to break. Thatcher, for all her ills, left us in the black. Labour spent it all.


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Turin Machine
post Jun 1 2017, 11:05 PM
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QUOTE (x2lls @ Jun 1 2017, 11:53 PM) *
I will be voting Tory. I refuse to accept a man who still has abbott on side. I also refuse to accept a lib dem leader who goes to church and believes in a fairy in the sky. Why is it, in this day and age, that if a prospective politician were to say he doesn't do god, he would not get elected. Hypocrisy at it's worst. As individual households, if we go overdrawn, we end up with a closed door to further financing. Why is it different at the national level? Something has to break. Thatcher, for all her ills, left us in the black. Labour spent it all.

I don't mind Tim's Christianity, I did mind him allowing the media pursuing him over it. Would we go after a follower of the Prophet (blessings be upon him) or a Jew for his faith? The twittering Islington liberal elite would have you hung in chains over tower bridge if you did. A man's faith is between him and God. (Or indeed Gods).
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x2lls
post Jun 1 2017, 11:41 PM
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QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 2 2017, 12:05 AM) *
I don't mind Tim's Christianity, I did mind him allowing the media pursuing him over it. Would we go after a follower of the Prophet (blessings be upon him) or a Jew for his faith? The twittering Islington liberal elite would have you hung in chains over tower bridge if you did. A man's faith is between him and God. (Or indeed Gods).



Who said anything about 'going after'? I would go in the other direction.

Yes, a man's faith is between him and his god (sorry, fairy!), and that is where it should stay. Kick them out of the House of Lords, religion has no part in politics. Politics affects my and my families lives. we have no religion, so why should there be religious input to laws?



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Andy Capp
post Jun 1 2017, 11:58 PM
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QUOTE (x2lls @ Jun 1 2017, 11:53 PM) *
Thatcher, for all her ills, left us in the black. Labour spent it all.

I understand the economy just before the 2008 crash was comparable with the economy when Thatcher resigned.
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x2lls
post Jun 2 2017, 12:28 AM
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QUOTE (Andy Capp @ Jun 2 2017, 12:58 AM) *
I understand the economy just before the 2008 crash was comparable with the economy when Thatcher resigned.



Sources?


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Andy Capp
post Jun 2 2017, 12:58 AM
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I could ask you the same question.
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newres
post Jun 2 2017, 05:09 AM
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QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 1 2017, 11:16 PM) *
Oh yes it is!!

So what happens if Labour emerge with the Lib Dems and the SNP as a coalition? That should be considered a second referendum?
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On the edge
post Jun 2 2017, 05:55 AM
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QUOTE (newres @ Jun 2 2017, 06:09 AM) *
So what happens if Labour emerge with the Lib Dems and the SNP as a coalition? That should be considered a second referendum?


Now there is a distinct possibility.

Similarly, and I'd hazard, the significance for this Constituency is the after effect. It could mean that the decades old Tory/LibDem de-facto coalition in Local Government is at long last coming to an end.


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newres
post Jun 2 2017, 06:16 AM
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QUOTE (On the edge @ Jun 2 2017, 06:55 AM) *
Now there is a distinct possibility.

Similarly, and I'd hazard, the significance for this Constituency is the after effect. It could mean that the decades old Tory/LibDem de-facto coalition in Local Government is at long last coming to an end.

Brexit would be in tatters. The government would have no mandate to conduct negotiations without parliament. There would have to be a second referendum. Any loss of majority would surely be a vote of no confidence.
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On the edge
post Jun 2 2017, 06:45 AM
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QUOTE (newres @ Jun 2 2017, 07:16 AM) *
Brexit would be in tatters. The government would have no mandate to conduct negotiations without parliament. There would have to be a second referendum. Any loss of majority would surely be a vote of no confidence.


I'm not saying it would be good or bad nationally, simply it's now a distinct possibility. There may just be time for a Tory recovery, but either way, the campaigning won't be nice.

It's the longer term and the local effect which interests me. Richard Benyon is clearly safe here but because of the Rendel phenomenum the LibDems have used that to build the myth that they are the local alternative. From now on, they clearly aren't.



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Biker1
post Jun 2 2017, 07:05 AM
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QUOTE (newres @ Jun 2 2017, 06:09 AM) *
So what happens if Labour emerge with the Lib Dems and the SNP as a coalition? That should be considered a second referendum?

Leaving the door wide open for a third?
Best out of 3?? laugh.gif
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Andy Capp
post Jun 2 2017, 08:07 AM
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A weakened Lib Dem vote and a strengthened Labour vote just makes this a safer Tory seat.
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newres
post Jun 2 2017, 09:49 AM
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QUOTE (Biker1 @ Jun 2 2017, 08:05 AM) *
Leaving the door wide open for a third?
Best out of 3?? laugh.gif

Talk to TM. She called number 2.
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