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> Double dippers, Doom-mongers wrong again
Bofem
post Oct 26 2010, 10:34 AM
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Good to see the double dippers wrong again. Talking down our chances of recovery seems to be the Left's new thing.

Monday's Independent - "UK on brink of double dip recession" and today "UK growth figures better than expected". Spot on eh?

Good to see the 'real economy': construction and manufacturing leading the way for a change.

It may be a blip (who knows? certainly not the Independent or me), but good news is worth discussing too.



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blackdog
post Oct 26 2010, 10:43 AM
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QUOTE (Bofem @ Oct 26 2010, 11:34 AM) *
Good to see the double dippers wrong again. Talking down our chances of recovery seems to be the Left's new thing.

Monday's Independent - "UK on brink of double dip recession" and today "UK growth figures better than expected". Spot on eh?


Too early to tell - the figures were better than expected (0.8% growth as opposed to 0.4%) but still worse than last month (1.2%). If the trend continues down at this rate we will be in recession by Christmas - hopefully they will stabilise.

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TallDarkAndHands...
post Oct 26 2010, 12:12 PM
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QUOTE (Bofem @ Oct 26 2010, 11:34 AM) *
Good to see the double dippers wrong again. Talking down our chances of recovery seems to be the Left's new thing.

Monday's Independent - "UK on brink of double dip recession" and today "UK growth figures better than expected". Spot on eh?

Good to see the 'real economy': construction and manufacturing leading the way for a change.

It may be a blip (who knows? certainly not the Independent or me), but good news is worth discussing too.


I agree. Labour appear desperate to talk the economy down in the hope that everyone will get worried, not spend any money and take the Country into recession. I really dislike the way Labour are playing their cards with regard to this as far as I can see they have offered no alternative that would keep the IMF happy and consolidate the Country's credit rating. If our credit rating go's up the spout, the interest we get charged on our huge national debt will increase and we will be caught in a downward economic spiral that we cannot get out of. It was on their watch that the brown stuff hit the fan...
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Bloggo
post Oct 26 2010, 12:35 PM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Oct 26 2010, 01:12 PM) *
I agree. Labour appear desperate to talk the economy down in the hope that everyone will get worried, not spend any money and take the Country into recession. I really dislike the way Labour are playing their cards with regard to this as far as I can see they have offered no alternative that would keep the IMF happy and consolidate the Country's credit rating. If our credit rating go's up the spout, the interest we get charged on our huge national debt will increase and we will be caught in a downward economic spiral that we cannot get out of. It was on their watch that the brown stuff hit the fan...

It is a great pity that in times like these when we all need to make sacrifices and perhaps do that bit extra that the political parties can't put aside their differences and do and say what is good for the country not what is good for their party.


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Ozzy
post Oct 26 2010, 12:42 PM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Oct 26 2010, 01:12 PM) *
Labour appear desperate to talk the economy down in the hope that everyone will get worried, not spend any money and take the Country into recession. I really dislike the way Labour are playing their cards with regard to this as far as I can see they have offered no alternative that would keep the IMF happy and consolidate the Country's credit rating. If our credit rating go's up the spout, the interest we get charged on our huge national debt will increase and we will be caught in a downward economic spiral that we cannot get out of. It was on their watch that the brown stuff hit the fan...


A tad rich of the Blues to continually blame the Labour party for the economic crisis for at least another couple of years, yet they appear ready to take credit for its recovery despite them not actually doing much. I wonder how much of the recovery is actually down to the money pumped in by Brown and Darling to keep it going? I sincerely doubt Cameron can take credit for the recovery just yet.

It's still early days and as 'blackdog' suggests they do not appear as strong as last month.

Post christmas/New Year figures will be the key ones.

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Jayjay
post Oct 26 2010, 12:54 PM
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Really hope it is not a double dip, but think too break out the bubbly yet. The government cuts have, generally, not come into force yet and we still have the duty rise on petrol and increase in VAT to come. I think we can survive these if the gamble pays off and the private sector come up with loads of jobs.
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Richard Garvie
post Oct 26 2010, 05:57 PM
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It's going to be Q2 next year when we see a true reflection of the budget cuts / VAT rise. Fingers crossed that we don't go into recession, I don't think anyone wants that.
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Iommi
post Oct 26 2010, 06:27 PM
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I wonder what the ideal is, perhaps the best option is to have small short cycles of boom and bust as it were. It seems to me that perpetual grow is not realistic.
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Richard Garvie
post Oct 26 2010, 08:48 PM
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Well, at least we haven't had the mass unemployment and reposetions so far. If Osborne and his big gamble works, then we'll be ok. If it doesn't, it will set us back years. I just don't understand why we'd take the risk as a country when the country is still bucking the trend. When the measures from the budget and CSR kick in, we'll have a clearer picture.The thing is, a lot of what was in the budget comes in next April so it's going to be a staggered change from now until then. June next year will be the real test according to the news tonight.

What I don't get is the ideaology of the Tories, when tonight we have a Tory MP saying child trust funds should be replaced by a piggy bank in each childs bed room!!!
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dannyboy
post Oct 26 2010, 11:22 PM
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Any fule know that when it comes to economics what you do to today won't have effect for 12 months.
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Richard Garvie
post Oct 28 2010, 09:29 AM
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What made me chuckle was watching Justine Greening MP on telly claiming how the Tories had saved our credit rating and that all of these cuts were neccessary. We're still on Alistair Darlings plan right now, and although I don't think that went far enough, it seems to be working. Once these cuts start to bite and the VAT and NI increase is in place, that's when the real judgement will be made.
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dannyboy
post Oct 28 2010, 09:36 AM
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The last govt bailed out the banks to the tune of £185bn. I wonder if we'll ever see the interest on that loan?
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Iommi
post Oct 28 2010, 09:52 AM
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QUOTE (Richard Garvie @ Oct 28 2010, 10:29 AM) *
What made me chuckle was watching Justine Greening MP on telly claiming how the Tories had saved our credit rating and that all of these cuts were neccessary. We're still on Alistair Darlings plan right now, and although I don't think that went far enough, it seems to be working. Once these cuts start to bite and the VAT and NI increase is in place, that's when the real judgement will be made.

All we need now then, is a shadow CSR?
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Richard Garvie
post Oct 28 2010, 09:56 AM
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The Government took equity, so when we get our money back it will be at a decent profit. Obviously Murdoch and co won't want to explain that, but it was a very astute decision that will benefit us when we get the money back. This is why when you consider all the facts and what our deficit will be when we get all of this outlay back, it makes you realise that we are going to be much stronger than most. Whilst some companies dished out money left right and centre, at least in the UK we have some big payback coming our way and the terms were extremely strict (the Government put in directors to run those companies that were bailed out etc.).

What I don't get is why the Tories, Libs and some of the media lambast Labour for bailing out the banks. Are they suggesting the banks shouls have been allowed to go bust and all of us lose our savings? What is crucial is that any party would have had to bail them out to protect our savings, homes, businesses etc. The interesting thing would be to see what the Tories would have done different, but they don't want to talk about that!!!
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Richard Garvie
post Oct 28 2010, 10:01 AM
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QUOTE (Iommi @ Oct 28 2010, 10:52 AM) *
All we need now then, is a shadow CSR?


There is one. My personal view is that Darling wasn't far off, but what he wasn't big enough to tackle was the bigger issues of welfare reform. This was one of the biggest mistakes that Labour didn't tackle or talk about. There does need to be change, and Miliband has said he will support change providing it is well thought out and "fair". What is clear is that a lot of the changes proposed by the coalition are not fair or well thought out. For instance, the child benefit decision was rushed out at the Tory party conference and the Libs knew nothing about it!!!

We were promised new politics, and Ed is prepared to be part of that. But from watching PMQ's yesterday suggests that it's the same old Tories, ducking and diving and doing as they please.
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dannyboy
post Oct 28 2010, 10:07 AM
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QUOTE (Richard Garvie @ Oct 28 2010, 10:56 AM) *
The Government took equity, so when we get our money back it will be at a decent profit. Obviously Murdoch and co won't want to explain that, but it was a very astute decision that will benefit us when we get the money back. This is why when you consider all the facts and what our deficit will be when we get all of this outlay back, it makes you realise that we are going to be much stronger than most. Whilst some companies dished out money left right and centre, at least in the UK we have some big payback coming our way and the terms were extremely strict (the Government put in directors to run those companies that were bailed out etc.).

What I don't get is why the Tories, Libs and some of the media lambast Labour for bailing out the banks. Are they suggesting the banks shouls have been allowed to go bust and all of us lose our savings? What is crucial is that any party would have had to bail them out to protect our savings, homes, businesses etc. The interesting thing would be to see what the Tories would have done different, but they don't want to talk about that!!!

Would these be the same banks that will be paying out bonuses of £7bn to themselves this year?

The banks should have been allowed to go bust. If you think that allowing the banks to go bust would have lost us our savings (what are they?) then you must also think anyone with a mortgage would have had that written off too.

You don't bail out a business, which required bailing out due to appalling errors of financial judgement & then let things carry on as normal.

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Richard Garvie
post Oct 28 2010, 10:13 AM
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The bonus situation is disgusting. I don't understand why the Government didn't follow through with the Labour proposal to tax the banks £20bn. I'm sure that the bonus pots were capped by Labour last year, I wouldn't have paid them any bonus but I know a limit was put in place by Darling.
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Bloggo
post Oct 28 2010, 10:19 AM
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QUOTE (Richard Garvie @ Oct 28 2010, 11:13 AM) *
The bonus situation is disgusting. I don't understand why the Government didn't follow through with the Labour proposal to tax the banks £20bn. I'm sure that the bonus pots were capped by Labour last year, I wouldn't have paid them any bonus but I know a limit was put in place by Darling.

This financial self indulgent greed by the banks was ignored or perhaps even encouraged during the last 13 years of Labour government. There was no cap applied by labour. Tell me what the limit was that Darling imposed?


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Iommi
post Oct 28 2010, 11:01 AM
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QUOTE (Richard Garvie @ Oct 28 2010, 11:01 AM) *
There is one.

Where?
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Jayjay
post Oct 28 2010, 01:08 PM
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QUOTE (Bloggo @ Oct 28 2010, 11:19 AM) *
This financial self indulgent greed by the banks was ignored or perhaps even encouraged during the last 13 years of Labour government. There was no cap applied by labour. Tell me what the limit was that Darling imposed?


Darling put a 50 percent tax rate on bonuses they pay their staff above 25,000 at the end of 2009 to prevent the traditional bank hogfest of Xmas bonuses.
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