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> SEVERE (AMBER) WEATHER WARNINGS...
Gazzadp
post Jul 18 2014, 04:25 PM
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Post deleted in act of appeasement...

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gel
post Jul 18 2014, 07:04 PM
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However failed to predict Thursday nights lightning storm. sad.gif
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On the edge
post Jul 18 2014, 07:31 PM
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Thanks Garry! Gives us a chance to make the shower room ready for the dog - she gets terrified and likes to hide in there.


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Gazzadp
post Jul 18 2014, 08:42 PM
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QUOTE (gel @ Jul 18 2014, 08:04 PM) *
However failed to predict Thursday nights lightning storm. sad.gif


Post deleted in act of appeasement...

Whoops wrong post deleted again by poster.


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Exhausted
post Jul 18 2014, 09:07 PM
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QUOTE (Gazzadp @ Jul 18 2014, 09:42 PM) *
Well without wanting to blow on my own trumpet but then seeing as nobody else will, I posted on facebook yesterday evening that there was a "risk" of us catching something, the post is there on the Newbury Past & Present page. I am no expert, just somebody with an interest and so far I have done pretty well. I as also warned about that last major thunderstrom we had a few weeks ago. I also warned about the "potential of severe flooding" during those winter storms, yes my facebook fanclub of local trolls took the p***, but then I was right with too! Thing is people seem to think that only the Met Office and BBC now about the weather, thankfully there is plenty of other 3 parties that provide weather data to those who are interested. smile.gif


I'm going to Farnborough tomorrow so that should put the kybosh on the flying. Grrrr.

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blackdog
post Jul 18 2014, 09:29 PM
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QUOTE (Gazzadp @ Jul 18 2014, 09:42 PM) *
Well without wanting to blow on my own trumpet but then seeing as nobody else will, I posted on facebook yesterday evening that there was a "risk" of us catching something, the post is there on the Newbury Past & Present page.

But you also dismissed with disdain the idea that there would be thunderstorms last night.
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Turin Machine
post Jul 18 2014, 09:52 PM
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QUOTE (Exhausted @ Jul 18 2014, 10:07 PM) *
I'm going to Farnborough tomorrow so that should put the kybosh on the flying. Grrrr.

That'll be a shame if it does, It's a great show. Here's hoping you get some in.


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Simon Kirby
post Jul 18 2014, 09:59 PM
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QUOTE (Gazzadp @ Jul 18 2014, 09:42 PM) *
Thing is people seem to think that only the Met Office and BBC now about the weather, thankfully there is plenty of other 3 parties that provide weather data to those who are interested.

Computer modelling is difficult and takes some awfully big computers. i can imagine that the Met Office would have invested in the physics and hardware, but are there really other parties out there writing and validating their own CFD models and investing in massively parallel computer hardware, or has it all become much easier?


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user23
post Jul 18 2014, 09:59 PM
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QUOTE (blackdog @ Jul 18 2014, 10:29 PM) *
But you also dismissed with disdain the idea that there would be thunderstorms last night.
Yes, he said he thought nothing would happen.
QUOTE (Garry Gazzadp Povey)
Well despite almost EVERYTHING and EVERYBODY (weather people that is) saying it looks really (seriously REALLY BAD)!

I have just got a gut a feeling that NOTHING will happen!

Why? Well they forecast the same kind of thing (the media got hold of it) promised widespread thunderstorms about 6 weeks ago and yes you can guess NOTHING happened, well not for most of Southern England then!
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Turin Machine
post Jul 18 2014, 10:24 PM
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QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jul 18 2014, 10:59 PM) *
Computer modelling is difficult and takes some awfully big computers. i can imagine that the Met Office would have invested in the physics and hardware, but are there really other parties out there writing and validating their own CFD models and investing in massively parallel computer hardware, or has it all become much easier?

I relies on me liddle moppet o seaweed on privy door, then I leans on t'old 5 bar down by flossing meadow wit me clay pipe an I tells 'em, I says, tis gonna rain come fletching sunnay. Mark moi words. Now, git orf my land.


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Biker1
post Jul 19 2014, 08:40 AM
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So what are we supposed to do when we are dealt an AMBER WEATHER WARNING!!!?
It smacks of another quango type, nanny state cosseting where we cannot think for ourselves as parodied by Tom Utley here.
By all means give the warning, bearing in mind that we can do nothing about whatever Nature deals out for us, and take the necessary precautions if possible.
"Yes, you can all think for yourselves" tongue.gif
By the way, did anything happen? I slept through last night! rolleyes.gif
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Andy Capp
post Jul 19 2014, 09:54 AM
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QUOTE (Biker1 @ Jul 19 2014, 09:40 AM) *
So what are we supposed to do when we are dealt an AMBER WEATHER WARNING!!!?
It smacks of another quango type, nanny state cosseting where we cannot think for ourselves as parodied by Tom Utley here.
By all means give the warning, bearing in mind that we can do nothing about whatever Nature deals out for us, and take the necessary precautions if possible.
"Yes, you can all think for yourselves" tongue.gif
By the way, did anything happen? I slept through last night! rolleyes.gif

Advice is offered in good faith and on a 'take it or leave it' principle. The fact nothing bad happened in Newbury should be something to be glad about.
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blackdog
post Jul 19 2014, 01:18 PM
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QUOTE (Biker1 @ Jul 19 2014, 09:40 AM) *
So what are we supposed to do when we are dealt an AMBER WEATHER WARNING!!!?
...
By all means give the warning, bearing in mind that we can do nothing about whatever Nature deals out for us, and take the necessary precautions if possible.


You have answered your own question - take the necessary precautions.
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Andy Capp
post Jul 19 2014, 01:34 PM
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QUOTE (blackdog @ Jul 19 2014, 02:18 PM) *
You have answered your own question - take the necessary precautions.


Yes, Google is only a click away!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/warnings

But just-in-case:

Yellow: Be aware. Severe weather is possible over the next few days and could affect you. Yellow means that you should plan ahead thinking about possible travel delays, or the disruption of your day to day activities. The Met Office is monitoring the developing weather situation and Yellow means keep an eye on the latest forecast and be aware that the weather may change or worsen, leading to disruption of your plans in the next few days.

Amber: Be prepared. There is an increased likelihood of bad weather affecting you, which could potentially disrupt your plans and possibly cause travel delays, road and rail closures, interruption to power and the potential risk to life and property. Amber means you need to be prepared to change your plans and protect you, your family and community from the impacts of the severe weather based on the forecast from the Met Office

Red: Take action. Extreme weather is expected. Red means you should take action now to keep yourself and others safe from the impact of the weather. Widespread damage, travel and power disruption and risk to life is likely. You must avoid dangerous areas and follow the advice of the emergency services and local authorities.

I see nothing 'nanny' about that.
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MontyPython
post Jul 19 2014, 02:18 PM
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QUOTE (gel @ Jul 18 2014, 08:04 PM) *
However failed to predict Thursday nights lightning storm. sad.gif


Was there much danger in it? I wasn't aware of much flooding or lightning damage.


What I would like to see in the weather warnings, and indeed in some of the other forecasts is a prectiction of the likelihood percentage.

So on the Yellow warnings 30% chance of catching thunderstorm 80% chance that if you do flooding will occur.

and for a daily forecast Sunny with cloudy spell 40% chance of a light shower 10% chance of a heavy shower.

We know they won't get it right always but a more informed idea of what the chances are for the weather would gives us a better idea of whether to take a risk on whether the weather will be OK for whatever activity you wish to do on the day.
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Nothing Much
post Jul 19 2014, 02:37 PM
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I relies on me liddle moppet o seaweed on privy door, then I leans on t'old 5 bar down by flossing meadow wit me clay pipe an I tells 'em, I says, tis gonna rain come fletching sunnay. Mark moi words. Now, git orf my land. [b][/b]

I have solved the enigma "Turin Machine". You are my Norfolk neighbour.
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Turin Machine
post Jul 19 2014, 06:24 PM
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Yaghh gerraway, ya gert twazzle. laugh.gif


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Nothing Much
post Jul 19 2014, 06:49 PM
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babelfish rocks.

From my time in Papua we learned a few things to avoid.
1. Snakes Spiders Sharks.
2.Folk who spoke in Pidgin.
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Exhausted
post Jul 19 2014, 07:54 PM
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Well, we set off to Farnborough Air Show this morning. Damp but no sign of the amber warning. We packed all sorts of foul weather gear and resigned ourselves to having to make the best of a bad job. By 12.00 the clouds had lifted, the sun was shining and by the time the flying started, we needed the one thing we hadn't packed. Sun block.

Flying was brilliant with a virtually cloud free sky.

Unbelievable.
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Turin Machine
post Jul 19 2014, 10:22 PM
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Gerroff.


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