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> Second referendum
Strafin
post Feb 11 2019, 03:45 PM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Feb 11 2019, 12:43 PM) *
Indeed. And there are far more important things in the world than the EU and Brexit. I for one can't wait for the 29th March to come and go so we can focus on something else.

Oh I don't imagine the 29th of March will be the end date for all this, not even if we actually leave. This is going to run and run...
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Turin Machine
post Feb 11 2019, 04:04 PM
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QUOTE (Strafin @ Feb 11 2019, 03:45 PM) *
Oh I don't imagine the 29th of March will be the end date for all this, not even if we actually leave. This is going to run and run...

Relax! Chill! Brexit is dead. At least in any meaningful sense anyway, whatever happens now no-one is going to be happy.


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newres
post Feb 11 2019, 05:26 PM
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QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Feb 11 2019, 03:35 PM) *
It's not simple but yes Brexit is dampening demand but also the uncertainty over diesel is also playing it's part with sales of diesel vehicles down 42%. Nissan is a shining example of this, the reasons behind them pulling planned production is partly down to this but also down to the fact that sales of the xtrail are down 24% Europe wide. The same story is true of other manufacturers as well. Project fear is alive and well.

The clip predates the diesel issues. Its whats predicted as a result of leaving the single market and the loss of frictionless trade. Farming is expected to be very badly hit too.
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je suis Charlie
post Feb 11 2019, 05:43 PM
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Prediction is not exactly a science, nobody knows what's going to happen yet but the doomsayers are out in force. Let's not forget TM was predicted to gain by a landslide, brexiteers were predicted to lose, Our Don was predicted to be runner up and WW1 was predicted to be over by Christmas.
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TallDarkAndHands...
post Feb 11 2019, 05:46 PM
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QUOTE (je suis Charlie @ Feb 11 2019, 05:43 PM) *
Prediction is not exactly a science, nobody knows what's going to happen yet but the doomsayers are out in force. Let's not forget TM was predicted to gain by a landslide, brexiteers were predicted to lose, Our Don was predicted to be runner up and WW1 was predicted to be over by Christmas.


And Germany is going to go into recession. I guess newres and co will blame Brexit. And not Merkel. Or any EU policy.🤣
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Turin Machine
post Feb 11 2019, 05:54 PM
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QUOTE (newres @ Feb 11 2019, 05:26 PM) *
The clip predates the diesel issues. Its whats predicted as a result of leaving the single market and the loss of frictionless trade. Farming is expected to be very badly hit too.

Point taken, although a prediction made over seven years ago probably doesn't carry that much weight.


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newres
post Feb 11 2019, 05:54 PM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Feb 11 2019, 05:46 PM) *
And Germany is going to go into recession. I guess newres and co will blame Brexit. And not Merkel. Or any EU policy.🤣

The difference is that the one doing the prediction is the only economist that believes Brexit will be good for us and is the one trotted out by ERG. Imagine their embarrassment when the clip emerged. But actually forecasting is pretty accurate. They got the timing wrong with some things after the Brexit vote because the market reacted cautiously but if a no deal Brexit happens well feel the results for decades. Its total insanity. Find a single economist besides Minford that sees anything other than a significant downturn.
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Turin Machine
post Feb 11 2019, 05:55 PM
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QUOTE (je suis Charlie @ Feb 11 2019, 05:43 PM) *
Prediction is not exactly a science, nobody knows what's going to happen yet but the doomsayers are out in force. Let's not forget TM was predicted to gain by a landslide, brexiteers were predicted to lose, Our Don was predicted to be runner up and WW1 was predicted to be over by Christmas.

The BBC can't even predict the weather for tomorrow with any certainty!


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Turin Machine
post Feb 11 2019, 05:59 PM
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QUOTE (newres @ Feb 11 2019, 05:54 PM) *
The difference is that the one doing the prediction is the only economist that believes Brexit will be good for us and is the one trotted out by ERG. Imagine their embarrassment when the clip emerged. But actually forecasting is pretty accurate. They got the timing wrong with some things after the Brexit vote because the market reacted cautiously but if a no deal Brexit happens well feel the results for decades. Its total insanity. Find a single economist besides Minford that sees anything other than a significant downturn.

But Germany is going into recession, look at the economies of Spain, of Greece, even France is turning into a right mess! The EU is like all social engineering experiments doomed ultimately to fail.


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je suis Charlie
post Feb 11 2019, 06:20 PM
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QUOTE (newres @ Feb 11 2019, 05:54 PM) *
The difference is that the one doing the prediction is the only economist that believes Brexit will be good for us and is the one trotted out by ERG. Imagine their embarrassment when the clip emerged. But actually forecasting is pretty accurate. They got the timing wrong with some things after the Brexit vote because the market reacted cautiously but if a no deal Brexit happens we’ll feel the results for decades. It’s total insanity. Find a single economist besides Minford that sees anything other than a significant downturn.

Ipsos MORI conducted an online survey of members of the Royal Economic Society and the Society of Business Economists on behalf of the Observer.
73% of respondents thought that real household incomes in the UK would be lower over the next 10 to 20 years, if the UK left the EU and the single market. This compares with 10% who thought that incomes would rise and 13% who thought that incomes would be broadly unaffected.
68% of respondents thought that the UK leaving the EU and the single market would increase the risk of the economy experiencing a serious negative shock. 22% thought it would make no difference and 8% thought it would reduce the risk.

That's out of 639 response, from economists. So just on this evidence alone he's not " the only economist " now is he.
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SirWilliam
post Feb 11 2019, 06:37 PM
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QUOTE (newres @ Feb 11 2019, 05:26 PM) *
The clip predates the diesel issues. Its whats predicted as a result of leaving the single market and the loss of frictionless trade. Farming is expected to be very badly hit too.


If brexit achieves one objective and that is the end of live animal exports then it will be worth every penny. With 60 million to feed I would imagine UK farmers will be one of the major benefactors of brexit.


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SirWilliam
post Feb 11 2019, 06:43 PM
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47196387

Even private eye couldn't make this up. Funniest thing I have seen all week, (oops it's only Monday). tongue.gif tongue.gif tongue.gif


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Berkshirelad
post Feb 11 2019, 06:44 PM
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QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Feb 10 2019, 12:09 PM) *
It's not nonsense sonny, after the war Germany was rebuilt, primarily by us, we poured money into the country in a humanitarian effort because we didn't want it to be a perpetual basket case.


Strangely, my recollection is more of the Marshall Plan and loads of US monies.

I will concede that Volkswagen grew out of the ashes of the war due to the foresight of a British Major at the time.
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Turin Machine
post Feb 11 2019, 06:56 PM
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QUOTE (Berkshirelad @ Feb 11 2019, 06:44 PM) *
Strangely, my recollection is more of the Marshall Plan and loads of US monies.

I will concede that Volkswagen grew out of the ashes of the war due to the foresight of a British Major at the time.

We joined the party in 1950, meanwhile the good ole USA had ripped through German assets and patents and secured approximately $10 billion worth, (not to mention the rocketry of Von Braun). Dis you know the BSA bantam was just a re badged NSU?


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TallDarkAndHands...
post Feb 11 2019, 07:46 PM
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QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Feb 11 2019, 05:59 PM) *
But Germany is going into recession, look at the economies of Spain, of Greece, even France is turning into a right mess! The EU is like all social engineering experiments doomed ultimately to fail.

The Germans and French are screwed. Fact. They have tried to absorb far to many countries (ring any bells) and far to many migrants in far to short a time period. The chickens are about to sit down and roost.
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TallDarkAndHands...
post Feb 11 2019, 10:31 PM
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QUOTE (newres @ Feb 11 2019, 05:54 PM) *
The difference is that the one doing the prediction is the only economist that believes Brexit will be good for us and is the one trotted out by ERG. Imagine their embarrassment when the clip emerged. But actually forecasting is pretty accurate. They got the timing wrong with some things after the Brexit vote because the market reacted cautiously but if a no deal Brexit happens well feel the results for decades. Its total insanity. Find a single economist besides Minford that sees anything other than a significant downturn.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/gilets...774276.html?amp

If even the Inde reports this you know the brown sticky stuff is hitting the fan..
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newres
post Feb 12 2019, 07:06 AM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Feb 11 2019, 07:46 PM) *
The Germans and French are screwed. Fact. They have tried to absorb far to many countries (ring any bells) and far to many migrants in far to short a time period. The chickens are about to sit down and roost.

When will they be screwed by? The German banks will collapse this year - will it be before or after that?
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newres
post Feb 12 2019, 07:10 AM
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QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Feb 11 2019, 10:31 PM) *
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/gilets...774276.html?amp

If even the Inde reports this you know the brown sticky stuff is hitting the fan..

We survived the poll tax riots and France will survive these protests. The right wing narrative is that Europe is screwed so we're doing the right thing in leaving. It's only about disparaging the rest of the EU and saying we're better off out. I never hear anything positive about us leaving. Even Brexit's biggest economic fan says the automotive industry and farming will collapse and Rees Mogg says we'll know it it worked in 50 years! It's beyond stupid!

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je suis Charlie
post Feb 12 2019, 07:48 AM
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QUOTE (newres @ Feb 12 2019, 07:10 AM) *
We survived the poll tax riots and France will survive these protests. The right wing narrative is that Europe is screwed so we're doing the right thing in leaving. It's only about disparaging the rest of the EU and saying we're better off out. I never hear anything positive about us leaving. Even Brexit's biggest economic fan says the automotive industry and farming will collapse and Rees Mogg says we'll know it it worked in 50 years! It's beyond stupid!

You seem a tad confused, one of the surprising things to come out of this message is just how many leave voters were from traditional labour supporters. Not very right wing then. Farming will collapse? Really? You dont think that with 'imported food prices will rise' scare stories prevalent that British farmers might not fill the gap? Oh, and we don't actually have a British car Industry as such, we make cars for foreign car companies.
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Turin Machine
post Feb 12 2019, 08:08 AM
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QUOTE (je suis Charlie @ Feb 12 2019, 07:48 AM) *
You seem a tad confused, one of the surprising things to come out of this message is just how many leave voters were from traditional labour supporters. Not very right wing then. Farming will collapse? Really? You dont think that with 'imported food prices will rise' scare stories prevalent that British farmers might not fill the gap? Oh, and we don't actually have a British car Industry as such, we make cars for foreign car companies.

And it's doubly funny when you consider the biggest brexiteer is Jeremy Corbyn. Right wing? Don't think so. biggrin.gif


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