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Newbury Today Forum _ Newbury News _ Labour ahead of the Lib Dems in local polling

Posted by: Simon Kirby Jun 1 2017, 09:46 PM

See http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newbury

Labour have now edged ahead of the Lib Dems in the polls. OK, so Labour are still a long way behind Benyon in what is now the forth most Conservative parliamentary constituency, but if you're thinking about voting tactically to keep the Tories out then Labour is now the party to vote for in Newbury.

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Jun 1 2017, 09:55 PM

QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jun 1 2017, 10:46 PM) *
See http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newbury

Labour have now edged ahead of the Lib Dems in the polls. OK, so Labour are still a long way behind Benyon in what is now the forth most Conservative parliamentary constituency, but if you're thinking about voting tactically to keep the Tories out then Labour is now the party to vote for in Newbury.


Outta touch chap. Benyon is 1/200 with the bookies. You can get 40s for the Lib Dems and 500s for Labour if you want to waste your money.😂

Posted by: Simon Kirby Jun 1 2017, 10:03 PM

QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 1 2017, 10:55 PM) *
Outta touch chap. Benyon is 1/200 with the bookies. You can get 40s for the Lib Dems and 500s for Labour if you want to waste your money.😂

Yes, sure, The Conservatives are almost inevitably going to win here this time round - like I say, it's the forth safest Tory seat in the country, but it is a significant development that Labour are now polling ahead of the Lib Dems.

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Jun 1 2017, 10:04 PM

QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jun 1 2017, 11:03 PM) *
Yes, sure, The Conservatives are almost inevitably going to win here this time round - like I say, it's the forth safest Tory seat in the country, but it is a significant development that Labour are now polling ahead of the Lib Dems.


Perhaps people have accepted brexit and timmy has not.

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Jun 1 2017, 10:07 PM

DP

Posted by: Simon Kirby Jun 1 2017, 10:13 PM

QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 1 2017, 11:04 PM) *
Perhaps people have accepted brexiit and timmy has not.

I don't know that Brexit is the most important issue for people generally.

Posted by: Turin Machine Jun 1 2017, 10:16 PM

QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jun 1 2017, 11:13 PM) *
I don't know that Brexit is the most important issue for people generally.

Oh yes it is!!

Posted by: x2lls Jun 1 2017, 10:53 PM

QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jun 1 2017, 10:46 PM) *
See http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newbury

Labour have now edged ahead of the Lib Dems in the polls. OK, so Labour are still a long way behind Benyon in what is now the forth most Conservative parliamentary constituency, but if you're thinking about voting tactically to keep the Tories out then Labour is now the party to vote for in Newbury.


I will be voting Tory. I refuse to accept a man who still has abbott on side. I also refuse to accept a lib dem leader who goes to church and believes in a fairy in the sky. Why is it, in this day and age, that if a prospective politician were to say he doesn't do god, he would not get elected. Hypocrisy at it's worst. As individual households, if we go overdrawn, we end up with a closed door to further financing. Why is it different at the national level? Something has to break. Thatcher, for all her ills, left us in the black. Labour spent it all.

Posted by: Turin Machine Jun 1 2017, 11:05 PM

QUOTE (x2lls @ Jun 1 2017, 11:53 PM) *
I will be voting Tory. I refuse to accept a man who still has abbott on side. I also refuse to accept a lib dem leader who goes to church and believes in a fairy in the sky. Why is it, in this day and age, that if a prospective politician were to say he doesn't do god, he would not get elected. Hypocrisy at it's worst. As individual households, if we go overdrawn, we end up with a closed door to further financing. Why is it different at the national level? Something has to break. Thatcher, for all her ills, left us in the black. Labour spent it all.

I don't mind Tim's Christianity, I did mind him allowing the media pursuing him over it. Would we go after a follower of the Prophet (blessings be upon him) or a Jew for his faith? The twittering Islington liberal elite would have you hung in chains over tower bridge if you did. A man's faith is between him and God. (Or indeed Gods).

Posted by: x2lls Jun 1 2017, 11:41 PM

QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 2 2017, 12:05 AM) *
I don't mind Tim's Christianity, I did mind him allowing the media pursuing him over it. Would we go after a follower of the Prophet (blessings be upon him) or a Jew for his faith? The twittering Islington liberal elite would have you hung in chains over tower bridge if you did. A man's faith is between him and God. (Or indeed Gods).



Who said anything about 'going after'? I would go in the other direction.

Yes, a man's faith is between him and his god (sorry, fairy!), and that is where it should stay. Kick them out of the House of Lords, religion has no part in politics. Politics affects my and my families lives. we have no religion, so why should there be religious input to laws?


Posted by: Andy Capp Jun 1 2017, 11:58 PM

QUOTE (x2lls @ Jun 1 2017, 11:53 PM) *
Thatcher, for all her ills, left us in the black. Labour spent it all.

I understand the economy just before the 2008 crash was comparable with the economy when Thatcher resigned.

Posted by: x2lls Jun 2 2017, 12:28 AM

QUOTE (Andy Capp @ Jun 2 2017, 12:58 AM) *
I understand the economy just before the 2008 crash was comparable with the economy when Thatcher resigned.



Sources?

Posted by: Andy Capp Jun 2 2017, 12:58 AM

I could ask you the same question.

Posted by: newres Jun 2 2017, 05:09 AM

QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 1 2017, 11:16 PM) *
Oh yes it is!!

So what happens if Labour emerge with the Lib Dems and the SNP as a coalition? That should be considered a second referendum?

Posted by: On the edge Jun 2 2017, 05:55 AM

QUOTE (newres @ Jun 2 2017, 06:09 AM) *
So what happens if Labour emerge with the Lib Dems and the SNP as a coalition? That should be considered a second referendum?


Now there is a distinct possibility.

Similarly, and I'd hazard, the significance for this Constituency is the after effect. It could mean that the decades old Tory/LibDem de-facto coalition in Local Government is at long last coming to an end.

Posted by: newres Jun 2 2017, 06:16 AM

QUOTE (On the edge @ Jun 2 2017, 06:55 AM) *
Now there is a distinct possibility.

Similarly, and I'd hazard, the significance for this Constituency is the after effect. It could mean that the decades old Tory/LibDem de-facto coalition in Local Government is at long last coming to an end.

Brexit would be in tatters. The government would have no mandate to conduct negotiations without parliament. There would have to be a second referendum. Any loss of majority would surely be a vote of no confidence.

Posted by: On the edge Jun 2 2017, 06:45 AM

QUOTE (newres @ Jun 2 2017, 07:16 AM) *
Brexit would be in tatters. The government would have no mandate to conduct negotiations without parliament. There would have to be a second referendum. Any loss of majority would surely be a vote of no confidence.


I'm not saying it would be good or bad nationally, simply it's now a distinct possibility. There may just be time for a Tory recovery, but either way, the campaigning won't be nice.

It's the longer term and the local effect which interests me. Richard Benyon is clearly safe here but because of the Rendel phenomenum the LibDems have used that to build the myth that they are the local alternative. From now on, they clearly aren't.


Posted by: Biker1 Jun 2 2017, 07:05 AM

QUOTE (newres @ Jun 2 2017, 06:09 AM) *
So what happens if Labour emerge with the Lib Dems and the SNP as a coalition? That should be considered a second referendum?

Leaving the door wide open for a third?
Best out of 3?? laugh.gif

Posted by: Andy Capp Jun 2 2017, 08:07 AM

A weakened Lib Dem vote and a strengthened Labour vote just makes this a safer Tory seat.

Posted by: newres Jun 2 2017, 09:49 AM

QUOTE (Biker1 @ Jun 2 2017, 08:05 AM) *
Leaving the door wide open for a third?
Best out of 3?? laugh.gif

Talk to TM. She called number 2.

Posted by: On the edge Jun 2 2017, 09:50 AM

QUOTE (Andy Capp @ Jun 2 2017, 09:07 AM) *
A weakened Lib Dem vote and a strengthened Labour vote just makes this a safer Tory seat.


It's rock solid Tory today and probably for the immediate future. Once the Town Centre is fully occupied and the electrification delivered the incomers to Newbury will change the dynamic. It's nice to dream about past glories, but Liberal Democracy is played out round here. No one will come near to defeating the Tories here for a few years yet, so it makes sense to vote for the coming people who are likely to be around for the long haul.

Posted by: Simon Kirby Jun 2 2017, 10:14 PM

QUOTE (newres @ Jun 2 2017, 07:16 AM) *
Brexit would be in tatters. The government would have no mandate to conduct negotiations without parliament. There would have to be a second referendum. Any loss of majority would surely be a vote of no confidence.

It's not at all clear, and not going at all as May would presumably have wanted. Her campaign has been poor, and her performance dreadful, coming over as anxious and lost. My guess right now is that the Conservatives will win a majority, but a reduced majority, and I'd be surprised if May lasted the year as prime minister. None of that will be good for the UK.

Posted by: je suis Charlie Jun 2 2017, 10:17 PM

QUOTE (On the edge @ Jun 2 2017, 10:50 AM) *
It's rock solid Tory today and probably for the immediate future. Once the Town Centre is fully occupied and the electrification delivered the incomers to Newbury will change the dynamic. It's nice to dream about past glories, but Liberal Democracy is played out round here. No one will come near to defeating the Tories here for a few years yet, so it makes sense to vote for the coming people who are likely to be around for the long haul.

If, they had someone like David Rendell, a good man. Then they might start to make inroads.

Posted by: Simon Kirby Jun 2 2017, 10:21 PM

QUOTE (Andy Capp @ Jun 2 2017, 09:07 AM) *
A weakened Lib Dem vote and a strengthened Labour vote just makes this a safer Tory seat.

How do you figure that? I would suggest that Labour have previously been inconsequential but I see that changing with Labour winning seats at WBC and in the politicised parishes, and if Labour hold the Tories to account effectively at a local level a Labour MP is a possibility.

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Jun 3 2017, 05:18 AM

QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jun 2 2017, 11:21 PM) *
How do you figure that? I would suggest that Labour have previously been inconsequential but I see that changing with Labour winning seats at WBC and in the politicised parishes, and if Labour hold the Tories to account effectively at a local level a Labour MP is a possibility.


No chance. Labour has as much chance round here as the Tories do in Hackney. You would have to change the demographic. A lot.

Posted by: Simon Kirby Jun 3 2017, 07:13 AM

QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 3 2017, 06:18 AM) *
No chance. Labour has as much chance round here as the Tories do in Hackney. You would have to change the demographic. A lot.

There is nothing unassailably Tory about West Berkshire. The Lib Dems got in, in local and national, and so can Labour with the right policies and approach. The Tories didn't become attractive, it was the Lib Dems that became arrogant and self-serving, but the idea of their politics of social justice was an attractive one that garnered a lot of support, and Labour is all about social justice so I have no doubt that it's possible.

Posted by: On the edge Jun 3 2017, 07:19 AM

QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 3 2017, 06:18 AM) *
No chance. Labour has as much chance round here as the Tories do in Hackney. You would have to change the demographic. A lot.


And that lot of change is just about to be delivered. The new developments in town and now villages are creating the dormatory suburb. Pollsters now recognise that the party divide isn't class based any longer, it's much more age related. Sure, the candidate, has a big personal following, just like David Rendel, as previously suggested, but that's pretty fickle as indeed he discovered. So if you really believe the Tories are rock solid, all those lovely new homes popping up may be telling a different story; certainly for the Town centre, they ain't aimed at local first time buyers.

Posted by: blackdog Jun 3 2017, 09:33 PM

QUOTE (x2lls @ Jun 1 2017, 11:53 PM) *
I will be voting Tory. I refuse to accept a man who still has abbott on side. I also refuse to accept a lib dem leader who goes to church and believes in a fairy in the sky. Why is it, in this day and age, that if a prospective politician were to say he doesn't do god, he would not get elected. Hypocrisy at it's worst. As individual households, if we go overdrawn, we end up with a closed door to further financing. Why is it different at the national level? Something has to break. Thatcher, for all her ills, left us in the black. Labour spent it all.

You are aware that the Conservatives are led by a believer in that 'fairy in the sky'?

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Jun 3 2017, 10:04 PM

QUOTE (blackdog @ Jun 3 2017, 10:33 PM) *
You are aware that the Conservatives are led by a believer in that 'fairy in the sky'?


Yep. The Lib Dems are a busted flush though. They will be lucky to retain the few seats they have. I think Corbyn will win. People seem to be transfixed by him. And May is doing everything she can to lose. Makes you wonder....

Posted by: On the edge Jun 3 2017, 11:06 PM

QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 3 2017, 11:04 PM) *
Yep. The Lib Dems are a busted flush though. They will be lucky to retain the few seats they have. I think Corbyn will win. People seem to be transfixed by him. And May is doing everything she can to lose. Makes you wonder....


Not really, if you take a long view. As Jim Callaghan in 1979 (another incumbent who started out as favorite) every so often there is a sea change in politics. I guess there is now. We finished with consensus politics in that year; and have had Thatcherite Cobden and Bright liberalisim ever since. It seems there is a sea change again.

Posted by: regor Jun 4 2017, 12:03 PM

Whats all the fuss about? Round here the conservatives could put up a dead pig as a candidate and it would be elected with an overwhelming majority.

Posted by: Simon Kirby Jun 4 2017, 04:06 PM

QUOTE (regor @ Jun 4 2017, 01:03 PM) *
Whats all the fuss about? Round here the conservatives could put up a dead pig as a candidate and it would be elected with an overwhelming majority.

Well, it's like I said in the OP:
QUOTE
See http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin...py?seat=Newbury

Labour have now edged ahead of the Lib Dems in the polls. OK, so Labour are still a long way behind Benyon in what is now the forth most Conservative parliamentary constituency, but if you're thinking about voting tactically to keep the Tories out then Labour is now the party to vote for in Newbury.

Posted by: Simon Kirby Jun 4 2017, 04:08 PM

QUOTE (blackdog @ Jun 3 2017, 10:33 PM) *
You are aware that the Conservatives are led by a believer in that 'fairy in the sky'?

And Paul Nuttall is a practicing Catholic http://www.catholicherald.co.uk/news/2016/11/28/ukip-elects-catholic-as-its-new-leader/.

Personally I think it's arrogant to dismis someone because they have a religious belief and even as an atheist I'm not entirely comfortable with the position of Humanists who claim our inate humanity to be the only valid basis for morality as that assumes "our inate humanity" is some kind of objective standard when it's nothing more than a culture's mores and values, and religion is much the same, so a religious basis for morality is no less valid than a Humanist one, and there is just as much tyranny founded on a Humanist basis as on a religious one.

Posted by: Turin Machine Jun 4 2017, 04:17 PM

Lots of Muslims in parliament, go have a pop at Islam, no? Wonder why.

Posted by: newres Jun 4 2017, 04:22 PM

QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 4 2017, 05:17 PM) *
Lots of Muslims in parliament, go have a pop at Islam, no? Wonder why.

Silly.

Posted by: Turin Machine Jun 4 2017, 04:28 PM

QUOTE (newres @ Jun 4 2017, 05:22 PM) *
Silly.

Why?

Posted by: On the edge Jun 5 2017, 11:34 AM

QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 4 2017, 05:17 PM) *
Lots of Muslims in parliament, go have a pop at Islam, no? Wonder why.


Mrs May just has; or at least at the bogus illegitimate followers causing the trouble.

Sadly, all institutions have their share of nutters; the issue is really to identify and isolate them. Easier said than done of course.

Posted by: Turin Machine Jun 5 2017, 11:57 AM

QUOTE (On the edge @ Jun 5 2017, 12:34 PM) *
Mrs May just has; or at least at the bogus illegitimate followers causing the trouble.

Sadly, all institutions have their share of nutters; the issue is really to identify and isolate them. Easier said than done of course.

Corduroy jackets and meusli are reliable indicators.

Posted by: newres Jun 5 2017, 04:23 PM

QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 5 2017, 12:57 PM) *
Corduroy jackets and meusli are reliable indicators.

At least you've nailed your flag clearly to the mast (poor spelling aside).

Posted by: Turin Machine Jun 5 2017, 08:24 PM

QUOTE (newres @ Jun 5 2017, 05:23 PM) *
At least you've nailed your flag clearly to the mast (poor spelling aside).

Oh Noes!! I've got the spelling police on my tail! Lawks! What ever shall I do?

Posted by: x2lls Jun 5 2017, 08:33 PM

QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 1 2017, 11:16 PM) *
Oh yes it is!!



Thumbs up icon.

Posted by: x2lls Jun 5 2017, 08:42 PM

QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 4 2017, 05:28 PM) *
Why?



I may have missed an answer, but I did ask @newres why the locals would be upset. No response so far.

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Jun 5 2017, 08:48 PM

QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 5 2017, 09:24 PM) *
Oh Noes!! I've got the spelling police on my tail! Lawks! What ever shall I do?


All hail the mighty Newres. He is the supreme being.

Posted by: je suis Charlie Jun 5 2017, 09:59 PM

QUOTE (newres @ Jun 5 2017, 05:23 PM) *
At least you've nailed your flag clearly to the mast (poor spelling aside).

Oh Newres, why you do this.? 🎎

Posted by: x2lls Jun 6 2017, 01:49 AM

QUOTE (newres @ Jun 4 2017, 05:22 PM) *
Silly.


Again, why? Please answer.

Posted by: je suis Charlie Jun 6 2017, 09:40 AM

QUOTE (x2lls @ Jun 6 2017, 02:49 AM) *
Again, why? Please answer.

He won't cos he can't.

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Jun 6 2017, 09:46 AM

QUOTE (je suis Charlie @ Jun 6 2017, 10:40 AM) *
He won't cos he can't.

The only thing he has is abuse when he has lost the argument...

Posted by: On the edge Jun 6 2017, 11:39 AM

QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 6 2017, 10:46 AM) *
The only thing he has is abuse when he has lost the argument...


Unlike anyone else round here! laugh.gif

Posted by: CharlieF Jun 6 2017, 01:41 PM

QUOTE (blackdog @ Jun 3 2017, 10:33 PM) *
You are aware that the Conservatives are led by a believer in that 'fairy in the sky'?


You don't want to dis the 'Fair Folk' - the fairies don't take kindly to it apparently. You ask the Irish who add multi-million alterations to major civil engineering projects just so they can detour round the raths so as not to offend the ethereal inhabitants. The Icelandic are much the same about the fairies' kin, the elves!

Can't be too careful I say!

Posted by: je suis Charlie Jun 6 2017, 01:45 PM

👍

Posted by: Claude Jun 6 2017, 02:13 PM

In a Lib Dem leaflet I received yesterday it said Judith Bunting was ahead of the Conservatives in a local poll. I can't remember the source but it might have been something to do with NWN. Can anyone else confirm the leaflet did indeed purport that to be the case, and advise where exactly the poll was conducted and how many were polled?

Posted by: Simon Kirby Jun 6 2017, 03:11 PM

QUOTE (Claude @ Jun 6 2017, 03:13 PM) *
In a Lib Dem leaflet I received yesterday it said Judith Bunting was ahead of the Conservatives in a local poll. I can't remember the source but it might have been something to do with NWN. Can anyone else confirm the leaflet did indeed purport that to be the case, and advise where exactly the poll was conducted and how many were polled?

http://www.newburytoday.co.uk/poll/poll/21180/how-will-you-vote-in-june-s-general-election.html
Lib Dem 43%
Conservative 28%
Labour 11%
Green 5%
UKIP 3%
Won't be voting 2%
Dave Yates 1%
Not elligable t vote 1%

And yes, that's what the leaflet said (didn't check the numbers, but that was the thrust of it).

I voted first time round, and it just let me vote again, so I don't know the mechanism but it looks like multiple votes are possible.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newbury currently have
Conservative 68%
Labour 15%
Lib Dem 14%
Green 2%
Dave Yates 1%

We'll soon see.

Posted by: Claude Jun 6 2017, 03:42 PM

QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jun 6 2017, 04:11 PM) *
http://www.newburytoday.co.uk/poll/poll/21180/how-will-you-vote-in-june-s-general-election.html
Lib Dem 43%
Conservative 28%
Labour 11%
Green 5%
UKIP 3%
Won't be voting 2%
Dave Yates 1%
Not elligable t vote 1%

And yes, that's what the leaflet said (didn't check the numbers, but that was the thrust of it.

I voted first time round, and it just let me vote again, so I don't know the mechanism but it looks like multiple votes are possible.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newbury currently have
Conservative 68%
Labour 15%
Lib Dem 14%
Green 2%
Dave Yates 1%

We'll soon see.

(y)

Posted by: Simon Kirby Jun 6 2017, 03:59 PM

You might also like http://www.newburytoday.co.uk/poll/poll/21514/who-do-you-think-would-be-the-best-prime-minister.html asking who yuo think would make the best prime minister.
May 42%
Corbyn 29%
Farron 11%
Lucas/Bartley 3%
Nuttall 3%

Nationally https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/ have the Conservatives with a marginal lead thusly
Conservative 42% and 304 seats
Labour 38% and 266 seats
Lib Dems 9% and 12 seats
UKIP 4% and 0 seats
Green 2% and 1 seat
SNP 4% and 46 seats
Plaid Cymru 0% with 2 seats (neat trick if you can do it)
with 20 other seats in Northern Island and elsewhere.

That's well shy of the 326 May needs for a majority, and having called an election with the intention of winning a landslide and then completely fluffed things up she's unlikely to survive as leader of her party even if the Conservatives do manage to form a minority government.

Posted by: Turin Machine Jun 6 2017, 04:09 PM

A, thats Yougov, considered to be unreliable.
B, Ah polls, Brexit, Donald.

it aint over till the fat lady squarks (sorry Diane)

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Jun 6 2017, 04:35 PM

QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jun 6 2017, 04:59 PM) *
You might also like http://www.newburytoday.co.uk/poll/poll/21514/who-do-you-think-would-be-the-best-prime-minister.html asking who yuo think would make the best prime minister.
May 42%
Corbyn 29%
Farron 11%
Lucas/Bartley 3%
Nuttall 3%

Nationally https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/ have the Conservatives with a marginal lead thusly
Conservative 42% and 304 seats
Labour 38% and 266 seats
Lib Dems 9% and 12 seats
UKIP 4% and 0 seats
Green 2% and 1 seat
SNP 4% and 46 seats
Plaid Cymru 0% with 2 seats (neat trick if you can do it)
with 20 other seats in Northern Island and elsewhere.

That's well shy of the 326 May needs for a majority, and having called an election with the intention of winning a landslide and then completely fluffed things up she's unlikely to survive as leader of her party even if the Conservatives do manage to form a minority government.


The silent majority never say who they are going to vote for.... We shall see on Friday morning.🇬🇧

Posted by: Simon Kirby Jun 6 2017, 04:42 PM

QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 6 2017, 05:09 PM) *
A, thats Yougov, considered to be unreliable.

Do you have a reliable source for that? I thought is was relatively reliable, though yes, it is just a poll. Wikipedia tells me that Stephan Shakespeare, the firm's CEO, once stood as a Conservative candidate for Colchester, so if there's bias it might be expected to favour the right. As I say, we'll soon see.

Posted by: Simon Kirby Jun 6 2017, 04:49 PM

QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 6 2017, 05:35 PM) *
The silent majority never say who they are going to vote for.... We shall see on Friday morning.🇬🇧

Sure, but it doesn't matter whether the majority of people are disinclined to express a voting preference because you only need a sample in a poll. What does make a difference to the accuracy of the poll is how representative the sample is if the population, and you need the sample size to be large enough so that the statistical error is acceptably small.

Posted by: Turin Machine Jun 6 2017, 05:20 PM

One things for sure, we'll all get precisely the government we deserve.

Posted by: newres Jun 6 2017, 06:20 PM

QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 6 2017, 06:20 PM) *
One things for sure, we'll all get precisely the government we deserve.

Just keep sending money to racists and cry yourself to sleep.

Posted by: Turin Machine Jun 6 2017, 06:41 PM

QUOTE (newres @ Jun 6 2017, 07:20 PM) *
Just keep sending money to racists and cry yourself to sleep.

Pardon me, but are you even classified as sane?

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Jun 6 2017, 07:11 PM

QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 6 2017, 07:41 PM) *
Pardon me, but are you even classified as sane?


I would think not.


Posted by: Andy Capp Jun 6 2017, 07:24 PM

Anyone who picks Abbott for the shadow cabinet shouldn't be in charge of the country.

Posted by: Turin Machine Jun 6 2017, 07:41 PM

QUOTE (Andy Capp @ Jun 6 2017, 08:24 PM) *
Anyone who picks Abbott for the shadow cabinet shouldn't be in charge of the country.

My point exactly.

Posted by: newres Jun 6 2017, 08:19 PM

QUOTE (Andy Capp @ Jun 6 2017, 08:24 PM) *
Anyone who picks Abbott for the shadow cabinet shouldn't be in charge of the country.

I'd rather have her as home secretary than a bed felliow. biggrin.gif

Posted by: Turin Machine Jun 6 2017, 08:25 PM

QUOTE (newres @ Jun 6 2017, 09:19 PM) *
I'd rather have her as home secretary than a bed felliow. biggrin.gif

You, me, the rest of the world. But apparently Jeremy thought it ok, still trust his judgement? 😂

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Jun 6 2017, 08:28 PM

QUOTE (Turin Machine @ Jun 6 2017, 09:25 PM) *
You, me, the rest of the world. But apparently Jeremy thought it ok, still trust his judgement? 😂

When he suggested 69 she got very confused.😂

Posted by: newres Jun 6 2017, 08:42 PM

QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 6 2017, 09:28 PM) *
When he suggested 69 she got very confused.😂

It's interesting though that the two MPs that were pilloried in the 80s were her and Bernie Grant. Admittedly they were very "of the street". I mean by that representative and fiercely protective of their constituents, but it's hard to believe that there wasn't an element of racism there. I'm pretty certain that close study of the press cuttings over the years would reveal it. The accusation of racism against her was ridiculous and in itself was racist I felt.

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Jun 6 2017, 08:55 PM

QUOTE (newres @ Jun 6 2017, 09:42 PM) *
It's interesting though that the two MPs that were pilloried in the 80s were her and Bernie Grant. Admittedly they were very "of the street". I mean by that representative and fiercely protective of their constituents, but it's hard to believe that there wasn't an element of racism there. I'm pretty certain that close study of the press cuttings over the years would reveal it. The accusation of racism against her was ridiculous and in itself was racist I felt.


I do think that racism was a big problem in the 80s. But we have thankfully moved on a **** of a lot since then. Abbott is incompetent and you do wonder if she has only got so far because of political correctness. I would hope people are promoted on ability.. and nothing else.

Posted by: je suis Charlie Jun 6 2017, 08:56 PM

QUOTE (newres @ Jun 6 2017, 09:42 PM) *
It's interesting though that the two MPs that were pilloried in the 80s were her and Bernie Grant. Admittedly they were very "of the street". I mean by that representative and fiercely protective of their constituents, but it's hard to believe that there wasn't an element of racism there. I'm pretty certain that close study of the press cuttings over the years would reveal it. The accusation of racism against her was ridiculous and in itself was racist I felt.

Totally agree. 👏

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Jun 6 2017, 08:57 PM

QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 6 2017, 09:55 PM) *
I do think that racism was a big problem in the 80s. But we have thankfully moved on a **** of a lot since then. Abbott is incompetent and you do wonder if she has only got so far because of political correctness. I would hope people are promoted on ability.. and nothing else.


Quite why the big firey place that the devil lives in is a banned word is anyones guess!!!

Posted by: je suis Charlie Jun 6 2017, 09:11 PM

QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 6 2017, 09:57 PM) *
Quite why the big firey place that the devil lives in is a banned word is anyones guess!!!

Associated with Christianity perchance? Although I believe that, 'that word' was handed down through Norse legend? Was Hel not the name of the goddess who held sway over the kingdom of the dead where you went if you hadn't fallen in battle?

Posted by: Simon Kirby Jun 6 2017, 09:14 PM

QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 6 2017, 09:55 PM) *
I do think that racism was a big problem in the 80s. But we have thankfully moved on a **** of a lot since then. Abbott is incompetent and you do wonder if she has only got so far because of political correctness. I would hope people are promoted on ability.. and nothing else.

Abbott has been pretty dreadful, but so too has Amber Rudd, yet Rudd hasn't been pilloried. I don't think Abbott has been attacked just because she is an out-spoken powerful black woman, but she's certainly been attacked for being a somewhat inept out-spoken powerful black woman in a way that a somewhat inept powerful white bloke wouldn't have been. I think there are better candidates for the job of home secretary.

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Jun 6 2017, 09:18 PM

QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jun 6 2017, 10:14 PM) *
Abbott has been pretty dreadful, but so too has Amber Rudd, yet Rudd hasn't been pilloried. I don't think Abbott has been attacked just because she is an out-spoken powerful black woman, but she's certainly been attacked for being a somewhat inept out-spoken powerful black woman in a way that a somewhat inept powerful white bloke wouldn't have been. I think there are better candidates for the job of home secretary.


Rudd has been bad yes but ahe has just lost her father. And shes not in Abbotts league for incompetence. And inept white blokes are given dogs abuse as well. Mr Trump being the obvious one. I can't really see a comic thinking it funny to depict Diane Abbott with her head cut off....

Posted by: je suis Charlie Jun 6 2017, 09:24 PM

QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jun 6 2017, 10:14 PM) *
Abbott has been pretty dreadful, but so too has Amber Rudd, yet Rudd hasn't been pilloried. I don't think Abbott has been attacked just because she is an out-spoken powerful black woman, but she's certainly been attacked for being a somewhat inept out-spoken powerful black woman in a way that a somewhat inept powerful white bloke wouldn't have been. I think there are better candidates for the job of home secretary.

Whoa! Hang on there, what about the ridicule directed at Boris, what about the rather snide song directed at TM, its nothing to do with her being black or female its because she's lazy and no good at her job. Saying that criticism of her is due to 'racism' or feminism is wrong, its belittles the cause and it damages decades of hard work put in to stamp out those twin evils. And it makes me as mad as **** when liberals start flinging accusations around which are both counterproductive and just plain transparent.

Posted by: je suis Charlie Jun 6 2017, 09:26 PM

QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 6 2017, 10:18 PM) *
Rudd has been bad yes but ahe has just lost her father. And shes not in Abbotts league for incompetence. And inept white blokes are given dogs abuse as well. Mr Trump being the obvious one. I can't really see a comic thinking it funny to depict Diane Abbott with her head cut off....

Yes, but that was satire, do it with Ms Abbott's head and it's a hate crime.

Posted by: Simon Kirby Jun 6 2017, 09:29 PM

QUOTE (je suis Charlie @ Jun 6 2017, 10:26 PM) *
Yes, but that was satire, do it with Ms Abbott's head and it's a hate crime.

Fair enough.

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Jun 6 2017, 09:31 PM

QUOTE (je suis Charlie @ Jun 6 2017, 10:24 PM) *
Whoa! Hang on there, what about the ridicule directed at Boris, what about the rather snide song directed at TM, its nothing to do with her being black or female its because she's lazy and no good at her job. Saying that criticism of her is due to 'racism' or feminism is wrong, its belittles the cause and it damages decades of hard work put in to stamp out those twin evils. And it makes me as mad as **** when liberals start flinging accusations around which are both counterproductive and just plain transparent.


Its Ok to be nasty to Boris or May though because thay are white bumbling idiots and liars. You cannoot be nasty to incompetent Abbott cos if you do you are a racist. Some people really cannot see past the end of the nose on the face they own. And only choose to focus on the abuse that none whites get as it suits an agenda.

Posted by: je suis Charlie Jun 6 2017, 09:58 PM

QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jun 6 2017, 10:29 PM) *
Fair enough.

Transmogrification.

Posted by: Andy Capp Jun 6 2017, 11:22 PM

I had some hopes for Cameron and May but those hopes were blown to smithereens. The Tory manifesto is more about what they are not saying. Corbyn hasn't appeared to be the evil man he has been painted by the press and argues well in my view, but I cannot see him running a country; I see him being a pushover by the unions.

Posted by: newres Jun 7 2017, 04:37 AM

QUOTE (je suis Charlie @ Jun 6 2017, 10:26 PM) *
Yes, but that was satire, do it with Ms Abbott's head and it's a hate crime.

I thought it was appalling and I despise Trump.

Posted by: TallDarkAndHandsome Jun 7 2017, 06:22 AM

QUOTE (newres @ Jun 7 2017, 05:37 AM) *
I thought it was appalling and I despise Trump.


And when interviewed she cried and said that "Trump had broke her". No my dear. You did that all by yourself.

Posted by: je suis Charlie Jun 7 2017, 07:51 AM

QUOTE (TallDarkAndHandsome @ Jun 7 2017, 07:22 AM) *
And when interviewed she cried and said that "Trump had broke her". No my dear. You did that all by yourself.

The liberal elite think (right word?) That they can get away with anything so long as it gets a chuckle from someone, wrong missy, wrong.

Posted by: blackdog Jun 7 2017, 07:52 AM

QUOTE (Andy Capp @ Jun 7 2017, 12:22 AM) *
I had some hopes for Cameron and May but those hopes were blown to smithereens. The Tory manifesto is more about what they are not saying. Corbyn hasn't appeared to be the evil man he has been painted by the press and argues well in my view, but I cannot see him running a country; I see him being a pushover by the unions.

Whereas May is a pushover for the media - one bad story and she's off in a different direction. There really isn't a good choice available to us.

Personally I think the Unions have a better agenda than the media barons.

Posted by: On the edge Jun 7 2017, 08:25 AM

QUOTE (blackdog @ Jun 7 2017, 08:52 AM) *
Whereas May is a pushover for the media - one bad story and she's off in a different direction. There really isn't a good choice available to us.

Personally I think the Unions have a better agenda than the media barons.


Yes, I'd go with all of that.

Posted by: CharlieF Jun 7 2017, 10:47 AM

QUOTE (Simon Kirby @ Jun 6 2017, 04:11 PM) *
http://www.newburytoday.co.uk/poll/poll/21180/how-will-you-vote-in-june-s-general-election.html
Lib Dem 43%
Conservative 28%
Labour 11%
Green 5%
UKIP 3%
Won't be voting 2%
Dave Yates 1%
Not elligable t vote 1%

And yes, that's what the leaflet said (didn't check the numbers, but that was the thrust of it).

I voted first time round, and it just let me vote again, so I don't know the mechanism but it looks like multiple votes are possible.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newbury currently have
Conservative 68%
Labour 15%
Lib Dem 14%
Green 2%
Dave Yates 1%

We'll soon see.


No Simon. That poll doesn't mention either Dave Yates or the Apolitical Democrats as an option - which is a complete swizz!

Posted by: On the edge Jun 7 2017, 12:13 PM

QUOTE (CharlieF @ Jun 7 2017, 11:47 AM) *
No Simon. That poll doesn't mention either Dave Yates or the Apolitical Democrats as an option - which is a complete swizz!


They still haven't understood that mis selling is simply wrong, even if you aren't a bank. Is anyone still going to trust a party they continually uses such sleights of hand.

Posted by: Simon Kirby Jun 7 2017, 06:55 PM

QUOTE (CharlieF @ Jun 7 2017, 11:47 AM) *
No Simon. That poll doesn't mention either Dave Yates or the Apolitical Democrats as an option - which is a complete swizz!

I agree Charlie, it should have entioned Dave Yates by name, but as there's only one independent candidate I thought is was reasonable to put Dave's name against it.

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