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> Election predictions
Richard Garvie
post May 5 2011, 09:55 PM
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What do you think then? Personally, I believe the two words that may sum up the election will be "Total Wipeout".
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Andy Capp
post May 5 2011, 10:01 PM
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I think it is likely to be more of the same. The more vociferous of us on this forum are in the minority.
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Richard Garvie
post May 5 2011, 10:15 PM
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QUOTE (Andy Capp @ May 5 2011, 10:01 PM) *
I think it is likely to be more of the same. The more vociferous of us on this forum are in the minority.


I thought if we had a big turnout, Labour would have a chance. But from what the exit polls and tellers are saying, it's going to be a good day for the blues. I'm chuffed, Labour have increased it's vote and we are just waiting to see if it's enough to win a seat or two. I hope I'm wrong, I'd hate to see the Tories get more seats.
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NWNREADER
post May 5 2011, 10:22 PM
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QUOTE (Richard Garvie @ May 5 2011, 11:15 PM) *
I thought if we had a big turnout, Labour would have a chance. But from what the exit polls and tellers are saying, it's going to be a good day for the blues. I'm chuffed, Labour have increased it's vote and we are just waiting to see if it's enough to win a seat or two. I hope I'm wrong, I'd hate to see the Tories get more seats.

Why? If that is what the election produces (or not) surely you would not ever hate the result?

Are you referring to the NTC or WBC elections? Or both?
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Andy Capp
post May 5 2011, 10:22 PM
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The Locals have come at a good time; before the cuts bite. Anyway, this is a very Tory town.
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Andy Capp
post May 5 2011, 10:24 PM
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QUOTE (NWNREADER @ May 5 2011, 11:22 PM) *
Why? If that is what the election produces (or not) surely you would not ever hate the result?

We all 'hate' being 'wrong' don't we? wink.gif
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Richard Garvie
post May 5 2011, 10:25 PM
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I just don't like the thought of an increased majority, it's not in the interest of the district for any one party to be so strong. This area has never supported more than two parties, and a Tory party member told me that I had been the best thing to happen for the Tories since Rendel voted to ban fox hunting!!!
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Andy Capp
post May 5 2011, 10:28 PM
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Why do you think the Tories are against AV?
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dannyboy
post May 5 2011, 10:34 PM
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But it is what the locals want. It must be - we have just had an election.
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Richard Garvie
post May 5 2011, 10:36 PM
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QUOTE (dannyboy @ May 5 2011, 10:34 PM) *
But it is what the locals want. It must be - we have just had an election.


It will be interesting to see if the non tory vote beats the tory vote. I agree, we cant dispute the result. But as I have said in this thread, the district has never been able to support more than two parties, every time Labour and Lib Dems have competed they have typically hurt each other rather than the tories.
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Andy Capp
post May 5 2011, 10:39 PM
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QUOTE (Richard Garvie @ May 5 2011, 11:36 PM) *
It will be interesting to see if the non tory vote beats the tory vote.

I'm sure it won't. Have you seen how new the cars are in Newbury that are being driven by teenagers.
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dannyboy
post May 5 2011, 10:41 PM
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QUOTE (Richard Garvie @ May 5 2011, 11:36 PM) *
It will be interesting to see if the non tory vote beats the tory vote. I agree, we cant dispute the result. But as I have said in this thread, the district has never been able to support more than two parties, every time Labour and Lib Dems have competed they have typically hurt each other rather than the tories.

LOL,

that is your fault then!!! Until you came along there was no Labour vote!
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Richard Garvie
post May 5 2011, 10:46 PM
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QUOTE (dannyboy @ May 5 2011, 10:41 PM) *
LOL,

that is your fault then!!! Until you came along there was no Labour vote!


We had to start somewhere. If it is 52 Tories, fair play to them. But I guarentee you one thing, I'll still be trying to hold the council to account. At least now when I ask questions or do anything, people can't dismiss me as electioneering!!!
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NWNREADER
post May 6 2011, 06:33 AM
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QUOTE (Richard Garvie @ May 5 2011, 11:46 PM) *
We had to start somewhere. If it is 52 Tories, fair play to them. But I guarentee you one thing, I'll still be trying to hold the council to account. At least now when I ask questions or do anything, people can't dismiss me as electioneering!!!

Everyone should do more to hold their Councillors to account. No need to be a party activist. Indeed, sometimes better not to be so they cannot merely dismiss the enquiry as psrty-led whinging
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Richard Garvie
post May 6 2011, 07:29 AM
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QUOTE (NWNREADER @ May 6 2011, 06:33 AM) *
Everyone should do more to hold their Councillors to account. No need to be a party activist. Indeed, sometimes better not to be so they cannot merely dismiss the enquiry as psrty-led whinging


Going on the percentages overnight, it seems my early prediction may well be a strong possibility. Still have almost 200 councils to declare their results too, most in the south have not declared as yet.
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NWNREADER
post May 6 2011, 07:35 AM
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QUOTE (Richard Garvie @ May 6 2011, 08:29 AM) *
Going on the percentages overnight, it seems my early prediction may well be a strong possibility. Still have almost 200 councils to declare their results too, most in the south have not declared as yet.

What, 'Total wipeout'? Of whom?
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Richard Garvie
post May 6 2011, 08:15 AM
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QUOTE (NWNREADER @ May 6 2011, 07:35 AM) *
What, 'Total wipeout'? Of whom?


I think there is a very good chance of seeing 52 Tories, which I think would be unhealthy but unfortunately Labour and the Lib Dems have split the vote elsewhere and given the Tories an open goal. For Labour to take seats, we needed a big turnout, and although Speen is slightly up on 2007, I don't think it's enough to let me win. I would be surprised if the non Tory vote is any bigger than the 400 it was in 2007 in that ward.

Looking at the figures from the UK, it would appear that the Tory vote is flat with Labour up by a decent margin and those votes are coming from the Lib Dems.
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blackdog
post May 6 2011, 08:28 AM
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QUOTE (Andy Capp @ May 5 2011, 11:28 PM) *
Why do you think the Tories are against AV?

Because FPTP means they will have many more MPs.
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Andy Capp
post May 6 2011, 09:59 AM
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QUOTE (blackdog @ May 6 2011, 09:28 AM) *
Because FPTP means they will have many more MPs.

Agreed.
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NWNREADER
post May 6 2011, 11:25 AM
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Is that always so for the party in overall ascendency?
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