Election 2015, Are we on the road to nowhere? Options

[TallDarkAndHands...]

Only 5 months to an election which will no doubt be rerun a few months later.
Italy here we come. Election, no majority, election, no majority.

And my prediction for 2015....

Labour 297
Conservative 273
Scottish Nationals 27
UKIP 25
Green 8
Democratic Unionist 8
Sinn Fein 5
Liberal Democrat 5
Independent 1
Speaker 1

Anyone else like to predict.. It would be interesting to see who gets closest! (make up is 649 + 1 speaker)

[Simon Kirby]

Interesting. My crystal-balling:

Conservative 276
Labour 255
Liberal Democrat 18
Democratic Unionist 8
Scottish National 41
Sinn Fein 5
Independent 3
Plaid Cymru 8
Social Democratic & Labour Party 3
UK Independence Party 27
Alliance 1
Green 3
Respect 1
Speaker 1

Labour look set to collapse in Scotland with the SNP making some big gains, and in the end I suspect the Scottish, Welsh, and N. Irish situation will have a bigger effect on Westminster majorities than the fortunes of UKIP in England. We might yet get a stable coalition between the ideologically compatible Labour & SNP with the Lib Dems in the mix for good measure - I would rather like to see Alex Salmond as deputy prime minister, and for that matter he'd do a far better job of Prime Minister than the ineffectual Milliband.

[JeffG]

Only 5 months to an election which will no doubt be rerun a few months later.
Italy here we come. Election, no majority, election, no majority.

No predictions here, but don't we have fixed-term parliaments now? 1 election = 5 years. Gone are the days when the PM could dissolve parliament (or ask the Queen, anyway) on a whim whenever conditions looked favourable.

[user23]

No predictions here, but don't we have fixed-term parliaments now? 1 election = 5 years. Gone are the days when the PM could dissolve parliament (or ask the Queen, anyway) on a whim whenever conditions looked favourable.

Yes, you're right. There's a couple of exceptions but they're fairly unlikely to happen:

• If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government"
• If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an
  early parliamentary general election".

[TallDarkAndHands...]

Yes, you're right. There's a couple of exceptions but they're fairly unlikely to happen:

• If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government"
• If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an
  early parliamentary general election".

However, if a government can't govern as it can't get any bill's passed due to no overall control you have a position which is untenable.
That's why I predict a 2nd election in 2015. Though "technically" you are of course correct. I want predictions though. Simon's had a go.
As Delia would say - Come on....Lets be avin you!

[Simon Kirby]

However, if a government can't govern as it can't get any bill's passed due to no overall control you have a position which is untenable.

It's not necessarily a bad thing if a government can't make any new laws - rather a lot to be said for that actually. It's only a crisis for the government if it loses a vote of no confidence, but if a minority government is able to maintain the confidence of parliament then it might not be able to strong-arm through any legislation, but it might yet pass some good laws by consensus - I think that could be a good thing.

But like you say, I'd like to see how other folk predict as the next parliamentary composition.

[user23]

However, if a government can't govern as it can't get any bill's passed due to no overall control you have a position which is untenable.

Yes, but even if the government's position is untenable, there's only two things that can cause an election before the 5 years is up, so which one do you think it will be that will trigger a second election?

[Simon Kirby]

Yes, but even if the government's position is untenable, there's only two things that can cause an election before the 5 years is up, so which one do you think it will be that will trigger a second election?

TDH can answer for himself, but there is some obvious similarity between our present situation and that in the seventies that gave us the Lib-Lab pact and the eventual defeat of the Callaghan government in '79, though as you say Wilson wouldn't have been able to go to the polls again for a better result like he did in '74.

I'd be interested to see you prediction user, I'm sure you have some thoughts.

[Turin Machine]

I think Simon's a little closer than tdh, I would hope for a better showing from ukip but it's unlikely to exceed 20 seats, lib dems will collapse and labour will lose massively in Scotland, beyond that it's any ones game.

[On the edge]

Conservative 282
Labour 260
LibDem 12
Dem Unionist 8
SNP 38
SF 5
Plaid 8
SDLP 3
UKIP 26
Green 3
Independent 4

For what it's worth. I think it's too close to call, some potential for local / sub independent players who could cause grief to the Speaker. The five year fixed term worries me though, a no confidence is always a nuclear option and possibly fairly remote, but it knocked out Callaghan. The big issue is the wasted year running up to an election; particularly as with present levels of dissatisfaction coalitions are far more likely. We will potentially end up coming out of Europe with American style politics.

[The Hatter]

It won't worry me, I'm not voting. There never seems much point, nothing is going to change all they do is blame each other.

[Biker1]

I'm not voting.

nothing is going to change

Hmmmmmmmm................!

[Turin Machine]

It won't worry me, I'm not voting. There never seems much point, nothing is going to change all they do is blame each other.

Of course it won't change, especially if people like you don't get off their ***** to vote.

[The Hatter]

You know the difference between Labour, Conservative and Liberals do you? No one I know does. It's just like the difference between Sainsburys, Asda or Tesco, same old, same old.

[Andy Capp]

I'm too beginning to doubt the value of voting in the current democracy (up to now, I have always voted). Labour should not be allowed back in government, but the Tories are divisive. I think the Lib Dems do add a bit of control, but few people are going to vote for them this time round.

My prediction is that it will be tie between Labour and Tories and UKIP having a similar total, but not as high, as the Lib Dems.

[Cognosco]

I'm too beginning to doubt the value of voting in the current democracy (up to now, I have always voted). Labour should not be allowed back in government, but the Tories are divisive. I think the Lib Dems do add a bit of control, but few people are going to vote for them this time round.

My prediction is that it will be tie between Labour and Tories and UKIP having a similar total, but not as high, as the Lib Dems.

Agree there is no Party that I can say I want to vote for. If I could select the actually policies from each party that I would want then that may be a different proposition?
I do know for certain that it will be the "ordinary man" that has to pay for the problems that we have and the rich will get richer. Call me "Dave" has now flogged off most of the countries assets, just the NHS to finalise what he has started. We all know that privatisation has worked wonders for keeping prices down don't we? Like transport we know if we don't like our current train to Reading and want lower prices then we can jump on a competitor train can't we and of course there is no conspiracy with price fixing? I still need convincing that all things need privatisation to work efficiently and be the most cost effective. Especially with the bills currently being issued by the utilities?
Then we come to my main objection and that is parties promising this and that with no intention of carrying any of it our or in the case of "call me Dave" stating there will be no top down reorganisation of the NHS and as soon as he is through the door of number ten he throws the NHS up in the air and we are still waiting to see what will happen when all the dust has settled and it finally comes to land? There should be legislation brought in to control this the same as we have for dodgy double glazing sales etc.

[On the edge]

I wouldn't disagree with that AC. Right now, I'll certainly go to the polling station but spoil my ballot paper. Round here at least, it's just a choice of blue - deep blue UKIP, regular blue - Tory or light blue LibDem! So, yes, there isn't much point voting.

[massifheed]

As Delia would say - Come on....Lets be avin you!

[Mr Brown]

I can't see Labour being any different to the Conservatives even when it comes to the NHS. They haven't made any really different or radical proposals about anything - just subtle variations. UKIP are clearly just classic right wing Conservatives; the Eurosceptics and the LibDems playing their usual role of sound bites to suit. With this consensus, rather than having shorter periods between elections, it's probably time for longer ones, say 10 years minimum - long term planning then becomes possible.

[Biker1]

You know the difference between Labour, Conservative and Liberals do you? No one I know does. It's just like the difference between Sainsburys, Asda or Tesco, same old, same old.

Well if Miliband gets in I think you'll soon find out!!
What would you say, or do, if a totalitarian government took over and denied your right to vote?
I think we should fight long and hard (as in the past) to maintain a democracy and the right to vote is a vital part of that.
Make use of what is denied to so many in The World in whatever way you see fit.