Lurch to the Right Options

[Simon Kirby]

"Sir Gerald Howarth, the former Defence Minister, said that his constituents were “fed up to the back teeth” with the Government. He challenged Mr Cameron to adopt a five-point plan that encompassed taking Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights, doing more to cut immigration, triggering a prompt EU referendum, freezing the aid budget and scrapping the gay marriage Bill." - The Times

I voted for Richard Benyon on the strength of the Big Society promise, but being realistic here: the Big Society was sunk before it even hit the water, and as I'm probably the only person in the country who wanted it I think it's fair to say that we won't be hearing about the Big Society again.

OK so, the Tories can manage without my vote, but I can't see them sitting idle as UKIP steal away 25% of the national vote, almost all at their expense. A lurch to the right will likely alienate any ex-liberals they might have hoped to pick up as the hateful lib dems disintegrate, but if Labour dump the hopeless Milliband and re-occupy the centre-ground with someone electable leading the party then the only space left for the Tories on the political landscape is on the right.

If Dave has any political conviction then he'll stand down and let someone else take over, but whatever, it seems inevitable that Tory High-Command will order the lurch: 1. Out of Europe, and a repeal of EU legislation, 2. Suspension of the Human Rights Act including the right to free speech and peaceful political protest, 3. Immigration controls and repatriation of migrant European workers, 4. no more foreign aid, and 5. criminalisation of homosexuality.

[Andy Capp]

A lurch to the right will just put them where they were when Howard was in charge. Holding an in/out EU referendum would be the best thing for the party, although I'm not sure it would be the best thing for the country.

[JeffG]

It could be worse. They could start taking Nigel Lawson seriously.

[On the edge]

It could be worse. They could start taking Nigel Lawson seriously.

[Squelchy]

It could be worse. They could start taking Nigel Lawson seriously.

That'll be the same Nigel Lawson that loves his country so much he's lived in France for the past umpteen years will it?

[blackdog]

The rise of UKIP is, in its way, a levelling of the political playing field. In the past Labour and Lib Dem have struggled to attract those with a socialist leaning and the Tories have benefited from the split of the vote between them. Now UKIP are attracting a lot of votes from the Tories so the right is as split as the left.

Around here the Lib Dems could really benefit owing to the lack of any significant Labour vote.

[On the edge]

The rise of UKIP is, in its way, a levelling of the political playing field. In the past Labour and Lib Dem have struggled to attract those with a socialist leaning and the Tories have benefited from the split of the vote between them. Now UKIP are attracting a lot of votes from the Tories so the right is as split as the left.

Around here the Lib Dems could really benefit owing to the lack of any significant Labour vote.

...not if Mr Garvey has anything to do with it! In reality, round here Labour have been asleep, certainly since the Greenham shenanigans. Within living memory Labour was far more the opposition than the Liberals or their camp followers.

[blackdog]

...not if Mr Garvey has anything to do with it! In reality, round here Labour have been asleep, certainly since the Greenham shenanigans. Within living memory Labour was far more the opposition than the Liberals or their camp followers.

In the 60s Labour was the main opposition, in the 70s the Liberals overtook them and since then Labour faded to also ran status. While they were fighting for second place they were getting 10-15% more of the vote between them than the Conservatives. Demonstrating just how the split in the left of centre vote benefits the Tories.

[user23]

In the 60s Labour was the main opposition, in the 70s the Liberals overtook them and since then Labour faded to also ran status. While they were fighting for second place they were getting 10-15% more of the vote between them than the Conservatives. Demonstrating just how the split in the left of centre vote benefits the Tories.

In the 50s the Liberal Party only fielded a candidate in one General Election in Newbury. I wonder why this was?

[On the edge]

In the 60s Labour was the main opposition, in the 70s the Liberals overtook them and since then Labour faded to also ran status. While they were fighting for second place they were getting 10-15% more of the vote between them than the Conservatives. Demonstrating just how the split in the left of centre vote benefits the Tories.

Of course, Newbury was very a very agricultural country district back then., Lots and lots of sheep.

[Simon Kirby]

In the 60s Labour was the main opposition, in the 70s the Liberals overtook them and since then Labour faded to also ran status. While they were fighting for second place they were getting 10-15% more of the vote between them than the Conservatives. Demonstrating just how the split in the left of centre vote benefits the Tories.

Small point, but the Liberal party wasn't a party of the left, it was a centre-right party - it's where Thatcher got all her best ideas from. Unlike the Tories the Liberals weren't such social conservatives and were more broadly libertarian.

The Lib Dems inherited almost nothing of Liberal political belief and ideology. The politics of the Lib Dems is best characterized by Clegg as a pre-Thatcher Tory, and Cable as a pre-Blair Socialist, and that incongruous combination has held together because they choose power over principle every time.

I don't think a left-of-centre split will affect Newbury all that much because there aren't many Newbury voters on the left of centre. There's still a strong libertarian element but having sold out to the Tories the Lib Dems won't so easily pick up that vote any more; for David Rendel maybe, but not for some nobody. They're much more likely to vote for Richard Benyon and Dave's Conservatives than they are for Red Ed's Old Labour, but that will change as Dave continues to lose his grip and the Nasty Party show their true colours. Labour is a more natural home for the libertarians, and the good work labour are doing locally by providing the only effective opposition to the Tories at WBC will win them votes, though their ineffectiveness at Westminster under Milliband is alienating many, and shades of 70's Old Labour alienating many more.

The open question is how strong UKIP can be in Newbury. I think the prospect of a UKIP MP will encourage many in the moderate centre-ground to support Richard Benyon, and as the loathed Lib Dems evaporate I can see Newbury becoming a three-horse race between Tory, Labour, and UKIP - in that order.

[blackdog]

Small point, but the Liberal party wasn't a party of the left, it was a centre-right party - it's where Thatcher got all her best ideas from. Unlike the Tories the Liberals weren't such social conservatives and were more broadly libertarian.

I though Thatcher got her ideas from Keith Joseph?

In the 60s under Jo Grimond the Liberal revival was all about a realignment of the left - Grimond believing that Labour was a soft target. He was proved partly right when the Social Democrats split off from Labour and eventually merged with the Liberals.

Like you I think Benyon will win again in 2015 (or sooner if the coalition collapses) but I don't think the LibDems will do too badly, especially in the WBC election, I wouldn't be surprised to see them as the majority party again. For all RG's histrionics I don't see Labour making as big an inroad into the Lib Dem vote as UKIP will into the Tory vote.

[On the edge]

Stunning victory for the LibDems in Victoria Ward last night. Good majority for the two candidates sent a clear message from the electorate; we are wholly satisfied with the way things are. Great day for democracy when some twenty five percent bothered to make the short walk to the polling station. We really are all in this together - up to our necks for sure!

[Sherlock]

OK so, the Tories can manage without my vote, but I can't see them sitting idle as UKIP steal away 25% of the national vote, almost all at their expense.

If UKIP manage to assemble some reasonable candidates (which seems unlikely based on recent experiences, but who knows?) I think they will also take a significant share of votes from Labour. I don't think many really care very deeply about whether we're in our out of EU but large numbers of people are very worried about high levels of immigration, particularly when it's becoming increasingly difficult for young people to find jobs.

Some of those who oppose immigration do so on racist grounds, of course, but that's certainly not the only reason. True libertarians and market advocates should support and encourage immigration, of course.

There are signs that all three Westminster parties recognise that there are other reasons for disquiet. Of course Labour actively promoted immigration to bolster their vote, a policy that they belatedly realised was mildly insane.

My guess is that as economic conditions deteriorate significantly over the next two years we'll see more and more extreme views from UKIP as they capitalise on fear and increased hardship. The Conservatives divide and rule approach to the less well off will also backfire, driving even more working class Tory and Labour voters into Farage's open arms.

[Simon Kirby]

If UKIP manage to assemble some reasonable candidates (which seems unlikely based on recent experiences, but who knows?) I think they will also take a significant share of votes from Labour. I don't think many really care very deeply about whether we're in our out of EU but large numbers of people are very worried about high levels of immigration, particularly when it's becoming increasingly difficult for young people to find jobs.

Some of those who oppose immigration do so on racist grounds, of course, but that's certainly not the only reason. True libertarians and market advocates should support and encourage immigration, of course.

There are signs that all three Westminster parties recognise that there are other reasons for disquiet. Of course Labour actively promoted immigration to bolster their vote, a policy that they belatedly realised was mildly insane.

My guess is that as economic conditions deteriorate significantly over the next two years we'll see more and more extreme views from UKIP as they capitalise on fear and increased hardship. The Conservatives divide and rule approach to the less well off will also backfire, driving even more working class Tory and Labour voters into Farage's open arms.

I agree.

[Biker1]

Stunning victory for the LibDems in Victoria Ward last night. Good majority for the two candidates sent a clear message from the electorate;

Stunning victory?
Good majority?
He beat the Cons by just 23 votes!!

[On the edge]

Stunning victory?
Good majority?
He beat the Cons by just 23 votes!!

Irony! I agree with you, just thought I'd write it as the LibDems will sell it. Frankly, a pretty poor result made worse by the apathy of the electorate. However some will see this as democracy on action. The other thing that's decidedly odd is that the LibDems couldn't find just two people in the ward who were enthusiastic enough to stand. Says a lot for their community engagement! Do we need NTC? Clearly the electorate don't think so; let's spend the cash on something beneficial.

[Andy Capp]

PAYTON, Alexander (Lib Dem) – 335 votes
UDUWERAGE-PERERA, Ruwan (Lib Dem) – 315 votes
BOWLER, Malcolm (Con) – 292 votes
FAIRBROTHER, Stuart (Con) – 279 votes
FARROW Charlie (Apolitical) 158 votes
BUTLER, Kate (Lab) – 148 votes
YATES, David (Apolitical) 136 votes
PUFFETT, Gary (Lab) 130 votes

[Biker1]

Irony!

Sorry, missed that!!
Should have known you by now OTE.

[Simon Kirby]

Do we need NTC?

That's the public debate that we need to have. Unfortunately, while the electorate have little interest in parish matters they also care little that the town council are doing such a poor job of it, and while there are so few individuals willing to challenge the council they are free to suppress any debate and victimize the persistent. Having been humiliated with the public declaration of Vexatious I am denied the right to put my concerns directly to the council, and anyone receiving a service from the council such as an allotment or involved in any way with the council such as a market tenant, is similarly unable to exercise their political freedom to criticize the council if they don't want to be victimized as I was. Unless the council themselves acknowledge their corruption and put their house in order I don't see that debate happening, and I don't yet see any prospect of the council doing that.

I've made the point before, that I think an engaged and accessible parish council would be an excellent thing at the heart of the community of Newbury, managing the parks and open spaces, the cemeteries and market, and possibly the allotments too, with a part-time parish clerk and probably a couple of full-time groundskeepers, all kept ticking over by a couple dozen locals with a genuine interest in civic duty, but the administration behemoth that the town council has become is out of control and I'm not sure it can ever be rehabilitated.